AI マルチホライズン分析
短期信頼度 80%
弱気
Price is below 12.87 (EMA-12) and 13.58 (SMA-20) on the daily; 1-minute tape is likely to remain weak unless BTC spikes. Volume is elevated, consistent with distribution.
中期信頼度 85%
弱気
Daily chart shows lower highs and lower lows since the 20.87 session high; MACD below signal, RSI 35, price below 200-day SMA. Momentum favors further downside toward 11.06-8.00.
長期信頼度 90%
弱気
Fundamentals have deteriorated: three quarters of heavy losses, equity down 65%, cash runway ~6 weeks at latest burn rate. Only a sustained BTC bull market or transformative capital raise can reverse the structural downtrend.
AI 総合判断信頼度 85%
弱気
CLSK is in a severe downtrend. BTC mining economics have deteriorated sharply, triggering three consecutive quarters of heavy losses, accelerating cash burn, and a 65% equity wipe-out. The company is surviving via repeated large-scale financings while selling assets; the cash runway is now measured in weeks. Technicals confirm the breakdown with price below all key EMAs/SMAs and RSI in bearish territory. Only a sustained BTC rally or a major capital infusion would reverse the trajectory.
詳細な AI ファンダメンタル分析
この分析は元々 英語 で記述されました。日本語 のキャッシュ版はまだありません — 上のライブ分析を起動して生成してください。
Business Snapshot
- CleanSpark (CLSK) is a US-listed, pure-play Bitcoin miner — one of the largest publicly traded BTC mining operations. Its core economics are simple: it consumes power to run ASIC miners, earns BTC block rewards + transaction fees, and generally converts mined Bitcoin into cash.
- Because the revenue engine is Bitcoin, the financial statements are a leveraged expression of BTC price, network difficulty, electricity costs, and fleet efficiency. The FY2025 results show what this model looks like when conditions are favorable.
- The provided income statement shows FY2025 (period ended 2025-09-30) revenue of $766.3M with operating income of +$318.9M and net income of +$364.5M — a strongly profitable year with a 47.6% net margin.
- The last three quarters (Dec-2025, Mar-2026, Jun-2026) tell a very different story: revenue is not populated in the payload for these 10-Qs, but operating income was -$316.6M, -$345.7M, and -$232.4M respectively — a loss-making inflection unlike the FY2025 profile.
- Backing into revenue from the reported line items (Operating Income + Cost of Revenue + Operating Expenses) implies roughly $276.8M (Dec), $218.1M (Mar), and $223.5M (Jun) — about a 21% decline from December to March, then a slight sequential uptick in June. These are derived figures, not as-reported, and should be treated as estimates.
- Note: the FY2025 annual figures do not perfectly reconcile to the sum of the breakout lines, so the quarterly derivations above carry additional uncertainty. FCF and Debt/Equity are also not populated in the payload.
Financial Trends
- Profitability collapsed. FY2025 operating income was +$318.9M; the following three quarters were -$316.6M (Dec), -$345.7M (Mar), and -$232.4M (Jun) — a combined -~$895M of operating losses in just three quarters. Net income followed: -$378.7M, -$378.3M, -$239.8M = ~-$997M of net losses cumulative.
- Margin trajectory is a cliff. FY2025 operating margin was 41.6% and net margin 47.6%; the most recent three quarters have deeply negative (though not populated) margins. The cleanest read: cost structure (CoR + OpEx) ran $450-590M/quarter while implied revenue ran $218-277M/quarter — structurally unprofitable at current BTC economics.
- Operating cash burn is accelerating. CFO was -$161.1M (Dec) → -$297.0M (Mar) → -$409.3M (Jun). The June quarter's burn was +38% worse than March and +154% worse than December. This is a clear deceleration in cash generation / accelerating cash consumption — the opposite of what you want to see.
- The company is funding the burn through financing and asset sales. CFF was +$496.4M, +$465.0M, +$464.7M across the last three quarters — roughly $1.43B raised in nine months. Meanwhile, Cash from Investing flipped from -$305.7M in FY2025 (heavy capex, expansion mode) to +$79.6M, +$49.0M, +$104.5M in the recent quarters — the company is now a net seller of assets/investments, a major strategic shift from build-out to survival mode.
- Balance-sheet strength deteriorated sharply. Total assets fell from $3.33B (Dec) to $2.70B (Jun), down -18.8% in two quarters. Shareholders' equity collapsed from $2.175B (Sep-2025) to $761M (Jun-2026) — a -65% destruction of book equity in three quarters.
- Retained earnings flipped deeper negative: -$125.9M (Sep) → -$504.9M (Dec) → -$912.9M (Mar) → -$1.153B (Jun). The company has consumed all prior accumulated profits and is now deeply underwater cumulatively.
- Cash position: $43.0M (Sep) → $458.1M (Dec) → $260.3M (Mar) → $202.6M (Jun). The December jump came from financing; the subsequent two quarters show $255M of cash consumed.
- One genuinely positive counter-trend: reported shares outstanding declined from 284.3M (Sep-2025) to 256.8M (Jun-2026) — down ~-9.7% — and diluted weighted shares also trended down (317.8M → 267.8M). This is unusual alongside $1.4B of financing and may reflect buybacks, conversions, or share-class removal; treat as a data point, not a confirmed buyback program.
Financial Health
- Liquidity is adequate in the near term but deteriorating fast. Current ratio is 5.91 and working capital is $765M — no immediate solvency crisis on paper. But working capital has fallen from $1.33B (Dec) to $966M (Mar) to $765M (Jun), and the trend is accelerating downward.
- Cash runway is dangerously short. Ending cash of $202.6M against a Q3 operating cash burn of -$409.3M implies roughly half a quarter (~6 weeks) of runway at the latest run-rate, absent new financing or asset sales.
- The business is structurally dependent on capital markets. The company raised ~$465M in each of the last three quarters just to keep cash from depleting entirely. Financing is not an accelerant — it is the oxygen supply.
- Liability structure shifted materially. Total liabilities jumped from $1.01B (Sep-2025) to $1.94B (Dec-2025) — roughly +93% in one quarter — and have stayed near $1.93-1.94B since. Liabilities-to-assets went from ~32% to ~72%.
- Book value per share is thin: ~$2.96 based on Jun-2026 equity ($761.3M / 256.8M shares) vs. a $12.195 market price. Considering the -$1.15B retained deficit, a meaningful portion of the equity value rests on future BTC upside, not accumulated earnings.
- Net selling of assets (positive investing CF) is a yellow flag. Selling bitcoin, miners, or other investments to fund operations can work in the short term
