IBMIBM

Business Snapshot

• IBM is a US-listed common stock of International Business Machines Corporation, traded on the NYSE under ticker IBM.
• The payload does not provide a sector or industry classification.
• Current price: $244.95. The 200-day range spans $199.19–$332.46.
• Fundamental data shows a large, cash-generative business, but with negative working capital, substantial debt, and declining cash balances over the reported periods.
• Shares outstanding increased from 934.7 million on 2025-09-30 to 942.1 million on 2026-06-30, a rise of approximately 7.4 million shares, or 0.8%.

Financial Trends

• Revenue: Reported revenue was $16.331 billion on 2025-09-30, $67.535 billion for 2025-12-31, $15.917 billion on 2026-03-31, and $17.162 billion on 2026-06-30. The annual 2025 figure is not directly comparable with the quarterly figures, so the cleanest sequential comparison is the latest quarter: revenue increased $1.245 billion, or 7.8%, from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026. Against the 2025-09-30 quarter, the latest reported quarter is up $831 million, or 5.1%.
• Gross profit and gross margin: Gross profit rose from $9.360 billion on 2025-09-30 to $9.907 billion on 2026-06-30, a gain of $547 million, or 5.8%. Gross margin moved from 57.31% to 57.73%, after reaching 56.23% in Q1 2026; this represents a 1.50 percentage-point sequential improvement and a 0.42-point improvement versus 2025-09-30.
• Net income and net margin: Net income increased from $1.744 billion on 2025-09-30 to $2.165 billion on 2026-06-30, up $421 million, or 24.1%. Sequentially, net income rose $949 million, or 78.0%, from $1.216 billion in Q1 2026. Net margin improved from 7.64% to 12.62% sequentially, a 4.98-point increase, and is above the 10.68% reported on 2025-09-30. The trajectory therefore shows a recent earnings and margin rebound, although the 2025 annual net margin of 15.69% was higher than the latest quarterly figure.
• EPS: Diluted EPS rose from $1.84 on 2025-09-30 to $2.27 on 2026-06-30. Sequentially, EPS increased from $1.28 to $2.27, or approximately 77.3%.
• Free cash flow: FCF was $8.444 billion on 2025-09-30, $12.102 billion for 2025-12-31, $4.937 billion on 2026-03-31, and $7.305 billion on 2026-06-30. The latest quarter improved $2.368 billion, or 48.0%, sequentially, but remained $1.139 billion, or 13.5%, below the 2025-09-30 figure. FCF remains substantial, but the sequential pattern is volatile rather than steadily accelerating.
• Operating cash flow: Operating cash flow increased from $5.169 billion in Q1 2026 to $7.766 billion in Q2, a $2.597 billion, or 50.2%, improvement. It was still below the $9.153 billion reported on 2025-09-30.
• Cash and liquidity: Cash declined from $11.569 billion on 2025-09-30 to $7.172 billion on 2026-06-30, a reduction of $4.397 billion, or 38.0%. Cash also fell $3.647 billion, or 33.7%, from Q1 2026.
• Debt and leverage: Long-term debt increased from $55.174 billion on 2025-09-30 to $56.212 billion on 2026-06-30, up $1.038 billion, or 1.9%. Debt/equity improved from 1.98 to 1.63, primarily because equity increased from $27.905 billion to $34.452 billion. Sequentially, debt/equity improved from 1.75 to 1.63.
• Working capital: Working capital deteriorated from negative $2.402 billion on 2025-09-30 to negative $7.514 billion on 2026-06-30. The latest figure improved modestly from negative $8.187 billion in Q1 2026, but remains substantially weaker than four reported periods ago.
• Current ratio: The current ratio declined from 0.93 to 0.79 over the period, indicating that current liabilities exceed current assets. It improved slightly from 0.80 in Q1 2026 but remains below 1.0.
• Investing cash flow and capital expenditures: Investing cash outflows were $10.970 billion in Q2 2026, compared with $10.489 billion in Q1 and $11.719 billion on 2025-09-30. Capital expenditures increased from $232 million in Q1 to $461 million in Q2, but remained below $709 million on 2025-09-30.
• Overall, the latest income-statement trend is improving, with sequential revenue, gross margin, net income, EPS, operating cash flow, and FCF gains. The balance-sheet trend is more mixed: leverage ratios improved because equity rose, but cash declined and negative working capital widened versus the earliest reported period.

Financial Health

• The latest quarter shows stronger profitability: revenue reached $17.162 billion, net income reached $2.165 billion, and net margin recovered to 12.62% from 7.64% in the prior quarter.
• Cash generation is a major positive. Q2 operating cash flow of $7.766 billion and FCF of $7.305 billion substantially exceeded Q1 levels.
• Liquidity is the key caution. Cash of $7.172 billion is down materially from both $10.819 billion in Q1 and $11.569 billion four reported periods ago.
• The 0.79 current ratio and negative $7.514 billion working capital indicate limited short-term balance-sheet coverage. These metrics improved slightly sequentially but remain weaker than on 2025-09-30.
• Long-term debt of $56.212 billion is broadly stable to moderately higher over the period. Debt/equity improved to 1.63, but this improvement reflects the increase in shareholders’ equity rather than a major reduction in debt.
• Investing cash outflows remain heavy relative to the latest cash balance. The payload does not provide the composition of investing outflows, so their specific drivers cannot be assessed.
• Overall financial health is cash-generative but balance-sheet constrained: improving earnings and FCF support the business, while declining cash, negative working capital, and substantial debt limit the margin of safety.

Insider Activity

• Insider sentiment for 2026-06-16 through 2026-09-14 is classified as Neutral (-4).
• Insiders reported $2.794 million of purchases across 12 transactions versus $6.915 million of sales across 5 transactions, producing net selling of $4.121 million.
• The most recent listed transaction was a $5.758 million sale by Thomas Robert David on 2026-08-26 at $230.3235 per share.
• Krishna Arvind purchased $2.000 million at $238.79 per share on 2026-08-27.
• The transaction mix is therefore mixed but dollar-weighted toward selling. The available data does not establish whether the sale was discretionary, tax-related, or part of a prearranged plan.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Context

• Ultra-short horizon — minutes: No intraday candle or indicator data was provided; the active timeframe is daily. Consequently, immediate minute-by-minute momentum, order-flow behavior, and intraday support/resistance cannot be confirmed.
• Short horizon — hours to days: On the daily chart, price is $244.95, above the 12-day EMA of $237.21, 26-day EMA of $236.17, 50-day EMA of $239.03, 20-day SMA of $234.92, and 50-day SMA of $237.10. This places price above the main short-term moving-average cluster.
• Daily MACD is positive at 1.0414 versus a signal of -0.3871, which indicates upside momentum on the supplied daily data.
• RSI is 62.70 on a 14-period basis and 54.79 on a 21-period basis. Momentum is constructive but not yet at the conventional overbought threshold based on RSI-14.
• Price is slightly above the supplied upper Bollinger Band of $243.31, while the middle band is $234.92 and the lower band is $226.53. This can reflect strong momentum, but it also raises the risk of short-term mean reversion.
• Current volume of approximately 1.27 million is only about 27% of the 20-day average volume of 4.65 million, so the latest price position is not supported by unusually high volume in the supplied snapshot.
• Long horizon — weeks to months: Price remains below the 200-day SMA of $260.94, while the 200-bar series shows a move from $304.125 open to $244.95 close, a decline of 19.46%. This leaves the longer-term trend less convincing than the recent short-term rebound.
• The daily ATR is $6.46, implying that a typical daily move is material relative to the current price. Breakouts or breakdowns should therefore be assessed with room for normal volatility.

Bull / Bear Cases

• Short-term bull case: Price is above the 12-, 26-, and 50-day moving averages; MACD is positive; RSI remains below 70; and the latest quarter showed a strong sequential improvement in revenue, net income, EPS, operating cash flow, and FCF. A sustained move above the recent price zone could attract momentum buyers.
• Short-term bear case: Price is above the upper Bollinger Band, which creates mean-reversion risk. Volume is well below its 20-day average, and the stock remains below the 200-day SMA. Failure to hold the moving-average cluster around $235–$239 could signal that the recent rebound is losing momentum.
• Long-term bull case: Revenue and profitability improved sequentially, gross margin rose to 57.73%, and Q2 FCF reached $7.305 billion. Strong cash generation could support debt service and shareholder returns if the improved earnings trend persists.
• Long-term bear case: Cash fell 38.0% from 2025-09-30 to 2026-06-30, current ratio remains below 1.0, working capital is negative, and long-term debt is above the earliest reported level. The latest net margin also remains below the 2025 annual margin. Net insider activity is dollar-weighted toward selling, adding a modest caution signal.
• The central long-term question is whether the latest sequential earnings and cash-flow improvement develops into a sustained trend, rather than remaining a rebound from the weaker Q1 figures.

Key Levels & Triggers

• Immediate momentum reference: $244.95, the current price, with the upper Bollinger Band at $243.31. Holding above this area would maintain the current short-term strength, but a close back below it could indicate mean reversion.
• Short-term support cluster: Approximately $237.10–$239.03, defined by the 50-day SMA at $237.10, 12-day EMA at $237.21, 26-day EMA at $236.17, and 50-day EMA at $239.03.
• Secondary support: $234.92, the 20-day SMA and Bollinger middle band.
• Lower technical support: $226.53, the supplied lower Bollinger Band.
• Major longer-term reference: $260.94, the 200-day SMA. Reclaiming and holding above this level would improve the longer-term technical posture; continued failure below it keeps the broader trend under pressure.
• Fundamental upside trigger: Continued sequential improvement in revenue, net margin, operating cash flow, and FCF, especially if accompanied by stabilization or recovery in cash.
• Fundamental downside trigger: Further cash depletion, worsening negative working capital, rising debt, or a reversal in the recent margin and FCF improvement.
• Volume confirmation: A move through major technical levels would be more convincing if volume improves toward or above the 20-day average of approximately 4.65 million shares.