AI マルチホライズン分析
短期信頼度 70%
弱気
1-minute and 15-minute charts are oversold but remain below key EMAs; MACD negative and price near lower Bollinger Bands.
中期信頼度 65%
弱気
1H and daily charts show price below all major moving averages; session high of 414.56 contrasts with current 327.61 level.
長期信頼度 60%
中立
Monthly uptrend intact but recent sharp correction from 413.87; fundamentals accelerating but technicals deteriorating.
AI 総合判断信頼度 65%
弱気
Short-term technical breakdown and insider selling outweigh accelerating fundamentals; momentum is negative across 1H and daily timeframes.
詳細な AI ファンダメンタル分析
この分析は元々 英語 で記述されました。日本語 のキャッシュ版はまだありません — 上のライブ分析を起動して生成してください。
Business Snapshot
- FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a global courier delivery services company headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee. It operates one of the world's largest air cargo fleets and extensive ground transportation networks.
- The company provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services through segments like FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, and FedEx Services.
- As a common stock (CS) on the NYSE, FDX is a cyclical, asset-intensive business sensitive to global trade volumes, fuel costs, and consumer spending trends.
Financial Trends
- Revenue trajectory: Revenue has been accelerating sequentially over the last four quarters. The latest quarter (2026-02-28) posted $24.0B, up from $23.47B in 2025-11-30 (+2.3% QoQ) and from $22.24B in 2025-08-31 (+7.9% QoQ). The full-year 2025-05-31 revenue was $87.93B, meaning the trailing-twelve-month run rate is now ~$94.3B, indicating strong top-line growth.
- Operating margins: Operating margin compressed slightly in the latest quarter to 5.62% from 5.87% in 2025-11-30 (-25 bps QoQ), but remains above the 5.33% level two quarters ago. The full-year margin was 5.93%. Margins are essentially range-bound between 5.3% and 5.9%, showing no clear inflection.
- Net income and EPS: Net income rose to $1.056B (EPS $4.46 basic) from $956M ($4.07) in 2025-11-30 (+10.5% QoQ) and from $824M ($3.48) in 2025-08-31 (+28.2% over two quarters). The full-year net income was $4.092B ($16.96 basic). The trend is clearly accelerating.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): FCF is not explicitly provided in the data, but cash from operations (CFO) minus capex (implied by investing cash outflows) gives a proxy. CFO has surged: $5.66B in the latest quarter vs $3.667B in 2025-11-30 (+54.4% QoQ) and vs $1.716B in 2025-08-31 (+230% over two quarters). Investing outflows were -$2.435B, -$1.48B, -$619M respectively. Using CFO - Investing as a rough FCF proxy: $3.225B (latest) vs $2.187B (prior quarter) vs $1.097B (two quarters ago) — FCF is accelerating strongly.
- Balance sheet strength: Total assets grew to $94.73B from $87.63B four periods ago (+8.1%). Shareholders' equity rose to $29.80B from $28.07B (+6.2%). Cash & equivalents more than doubled to $8.01B from $5.50B (+45.6% over four periods). Current ratio improved from 1.19 to 1.47, and working capital expanded from $2.98B to $8.19B (+175%). Debt/Equity ticked up slightly to 0.77 from 0.68, but remains moderate.
Financial Health
- Strong liquidity and growing cash pile: The current ratio of 1.47 and working capital of $8.19B indicate ample short-term cushion. Cash & equivalents of $8.01B provide significant flexibility for dividends, buybacks, or M&A.
- Accelerating profitability: Net income has grown for three consecutive quarters, and EPS has risen from $3.46 (diluted) to $4.41 — a 27.5% increase over two quarters. The trend is clearly bullish for earnings momentum.
- Moderate leverage: Debt/Equity at 0.77 is manageable, though it has risen from 0.68 four periods ago. This is not alarming but bears watching if interest costs rise.
- Strong cash generation: CFO has more than tripled from $1.72B to $5.66B over the last three quarters, suggesting operational efficiency is improving. The FCF proxy shows consistent acceleration, supporting organic growth and shareholder returns.
Insider Activity
- Overall sentiment is Neutral (-2) based on 30 buys ($19.76M) vs 43 sells ($32.61M) over the last three months, resulting in a net outflow of -$12.85M.
- Key transaction: On 2026-06-01, a massive sell of 119,753,703 shares at $0 (likely a zero-price filing, possibly a gift, transfer, or tax-related event). This is a non-market transaction and does not reflect typical insider selling at market prices.
- Interpretation: Excluding the anomalous $0 transaction, the net insider activity shows modest selling pressure ($12.85M net outflow). This is not alarming given the stock's recent price surge (see technical context) — insiders may be taking some profits after a massive run-up. The buy side is still substantial at ~$20M, indicating some confidence.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Context
- 1m (ultra-short): Price $327.81, RSI_14 at 31.39 (oversold), RSI_21 at 23.89 (deeply oversold). MACD is negative and below signal. All EMAs (12, 26, 50) are stacked bearishly. The price is near the lower Bollinger Band ($327.23). Volume is slightly above average. This suggests a potential short-term bounce, but the trend is clearly down.
- 15m (short): Price $327.61, RSI_14 at 30.21 (oversold), RSI_21 at 48.99 (neutral). MACD is positive but below signal — a potential bearish cross. The price is below the 20-SMA ($329.91) and near the lower Bollinger Band ($327.78). Volume is below average. Short-term momentum is weak, but oversold conditions may trigger a dead-cat bounce.
- 1H (active timeframe): Price $327.61, RSI_14 at 58.13 (neutral), RSI_21 at 50.31 (neutral). MACD is negative but above signal — a potential bullish cross. The price is below the 50-EMA ($330.31) and 200-SMA ($336.56). The session high is $414.56, low $318.2 — a massive intraday range of ~$96. The 200-bar chart shows a -20.67% decline from the open. Volume is significantly below the 20-period average (30.2K vs 122.3K), suggesting the selloff may be exhausted for now.
- 1D (daily): Price $327.81, RSI_14 at 42.33 (bearish), RSI_21 at 32.49 (oversold). MACD is deeply negative and below signal. Price is below all key moving averages (20, 50, 200). The daily Bollinger Bands are wide ($281.80 to $417.41), indicating high volatility. The current price is near the lower band. Volume is below average. The daily trend is clearly bearish.
- 1W (weekly): Price $327.81, RSI_14 at 43.22 (bearish), RSI_21 at 50.82 (neutral). MACD is positive but below signal. Price is below the 20-SMA ($367.86) but above the 50-SMA ($304.48). The weekly chart shows a 29.17% gain from open to close over the 145-bar period, but the current week is likely a large red candle. Volume is well below average.
- 1mo (monthly): Price $327.81, RSI_14 at 66.56 (bullish), RSI_21 at 55.69 (neutral). MACD is strongly positive and above signal. The monthly trend is still up (+125.16% from open), but the current month is showing a pullback from the high of $413.87. Price is above the 50-EMA ($269.76) and near the upper Bollinger Band ($412.24). The long-term trend remains intact despite the recent selloff.
Bull / Bear Cases
Short-Term (Hours to Days)
- Bull case: The 1m and 15m timeframes are deeply oversold (RSI_14 below 31), suggesting a mean-reversion bounce is likely. The price is near the daily lower Bollinger Band ($281.80), which often acts as support. If volume picks up, a quick snap-back to $335-$340 (1H 50-EMA and 20-SMA) is possible.
- Bear case: The 1H and daily trends are decisively bearish. Price is below all key moving averages on the daily chart. The MACD on both 1H and daily is negative. Volume is declining, indicating lack of buying interest. A break below the session low of $318.2 could trigger a cascade toward $300 (psychological round number).
Long-Term (Weeks to Months)
- Bull case: The monthly trend is still powerfully bullish (+125% from the open). Fundamentals are accelerating — revenue, net income, EPS, and cash flow are all rising sequentially. The balance sheet is strong with $8B cash and improving liquidity. If the global economy avoids a recession, FedEx could benefit from continued e-commerce growth and trade volumes. The current pullback from $413.87 may be a healthy correction within an uptrend.
- Bear case: The daily and weekly charts show a breakdown from a 52-week high. Insider selling (net $12.85M outflow) suggests some lack of confidence at elevated prices. Operating margins are range-bound, not expanding. The stock has doubled from its lows, and a correction to $250-$280 (50-week SMA at $304.48) would not be unusual. If the economy weakens, FedEx's cyclical exposure could amplify downside.
Key Levels & Triggers
- Immediate resistance: $330-$332 (1H EMA_12, 1H EMA_26, 1H SMA_20, 15m upper BB). A break above $332 could target $335-$340.
- Key resistance: $349.60 (20-day SMA), $356.79 (50-day EMA), $367.86 (20-week SMA). These levels represent major overhead supply.
- Immediate support: $318.2 (session low), $317.71 (weekly lower BB). A break below $318 could open a path to $300.
- Major support: $281.80 (daily lower BB), $304.48 (50-week SMA). A close below $300 would be a significant bearish signal.
- Triggers to watch:
- Bullish: A daily close above $332 with increasing volume. A MACD bullish cross on the 1H or daily. Positive economic data (e.g., lower fuel costs, strong retail sales).
- Bearish: A break below $318 on above-average volume. Continued insider selling. A downward revision to global trade forecasts.
