SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR GoldGLD

Business Snapshot

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) is an exchange-traded trust (ETV) that holds physical gold bullion, with each share representing a fractional ownership interest in the underlying gold. The trust’s sole purpose is to reflect the performance of the gold price (less trust expenses). It does not engage in any business operations, hedging, or derivative activities. The trust is listed on ARCA and is classified as a grantor trust, not a typical corporate entity. No sector/industry is assigned.

Financial Trends

Balance Sheet (Total Assets = Gold Holdings at Market Value)

• Total Assets have grown steadily over the last four quarters:
  • 2025-06-30: $100.92B
  • 2025-09-30: $124.57B
  • 2025-12-31: $148.48B
  • 2026-03-31: $155.17B
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth: +23.4% (Sep vs Jun), +19.2% (Dec vs Sep), +4.5% (Mar vs Dec). The pace of asset growth decelerated sharply in the latest period, reflecting a slower rise (or slight pullback) in gold prices and potentially lower net creations.
• Total liabilities remain negligible (ranging from $38M to $276M), consisting mainly of accrued expenses. Shareholders’ Equity moves in parallel with assets.

Income Statement

• Operating Expenses (trustee, custodial, and marketing fees) have increased each quarter:
  • 2025-06-30: $98.8M
  • 2025-09-30: $108.2M
  • 2025-12-31: $140.4M
  • 2026-03-31: $165.7M
  • The sequential increase accelerated: +9.5% (Sep vs Jun), +29.7% (Dec vs Sep), +18.0% (Mar vs Dec). This is likely due to higher average AUM driving fee revenue for the sponsor; it does not affect the trust’s gold tracking.
• Net Income is driven entirely by the change in gold price multiplied by the ounces held (minus expenses). It is highly volatile:
  • 2025-06-30: $5.06B
  • 2025-09-30: $16.83B
  • 2025-12-31: $15.49B
  • 2026-03-31: $10.22B
  • The deceleration from $16.8B to $10.2B aligns with gold’s price plateau in early 2026 versus the strong rally in the second half of 2025.
• Basic EPS directly mirrors net income per share (adjusted for share splits/creations): $15.43 → $49.89 → $42.49 → $27.18. The trend is sharply downward after the Q3 2025 peak.

Cash Flow

• Cash from Operations is reported as $0 for all four periods. This is consistent with the trust’s structure: the trust does not generate operating cash flows; its only cash activity involves creation/redemption of baskets (handled by authorized participants) and the occasional sale of gold to pay expenses. The data provided does not break out financing or investing cash flows, so free cash flow is not meaningful.

Key Takeaway on Trajectory

• Gold holdings (total assets) continue to grow but at a slowing rate, driven by a moderating gold price and perhaps reduced investor inflows. Net income has peaked and is declining. Operating expenses (not detrimental) are rising with AUM. The trust has zero debt and no operational leverage.

Financial Health

The latest period (2026-03-31) shows total assets of $155.17B against total liabilities of just $56.8M – a capital structure essentially free of financial risk. The trust maintains no debt and its expenses are paid by selling a tiny fraction of gold each year. The deceleration in asset growth (QoQ +4.5%) and the sharp drop in net income ($10.2B vs $16.8B two quarters ago) signal that gold’s price advance has stalled in early 2026. However, the trust’s ability to track gold remains intact. The only “health” concern for holders is that the trust’s net asset value (NAV) per share directly reflects gold’s spot price; operating expenses cause a small tracking error (~0.4% annually). No credit, liquidity, or solvency risks are present.

Insider Activity

No insider filings (Forms 4/5 or sentiment data) were found for the period 2026-06-28 through 2026-07-28, nor for the broader window 2026-04-29 to 2026-07-28. As an ETV, GLD has no corporate insiders in the traditional sense; management of the trust is handled by the trustee (State Street). Insider data is not applicable here.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Context

Ultra-Short (1m / 15m)

• 1m: Price is trending marginally higher within a tight range (close +0.13% on last 200 bars). RSI 14 at 56.63, not overbought. MACD positive but very flat. Bollinger Bands are narrow (384.30–384.87), indicating low volatility at the micro level. Volume is negligible (394 shares vs SMA 14k).
• 15m: Over the last 200 bars, price has fallen -3.39% from 398.22 to 384.74. RSI 14 at 59.82 suggests a potential short-term bounce, but the bearish MACD (-0.08) and price below the 200-period SMA (390.92) signal a weak intermediate trend. ATR 0.41 is modest.

Short-Term (1H / 1D)

• 1H: A wider downtrend – last 200 bars show a -6% drop from 409.3. RSI 14 at 42.01, approaching oversold. Price is below all EMAs (12, 26, 50) and SMAs (20, 50, 200). The MACD is deeply negative (-1.70) but the signal line is higher (-1.93), hinting at a possible bullish crossover. Volume is light relative to its 20-bar average.
• 1D: The 200-bar (200-day) view reveals a significant decline from the session high of 509.7 to the current close of 369.37. The 1D current_price in the data is 369.37, while the top-level current price is 384.74 – this discrepancy suggests the price may have gapped higher after the daily close or there is a data inconsistency. Regardless, the daily RSI 14 is 45.71 (neutral). Price is below all major moving averages (20, 50, 200). The MACD is negative (-4.21) but the signal is even lower (-5.47), which could be a bullish convergence. The 1D ATR is 6.29, indicating recent daily swings of ~$6.

Long-Term (1W / 1mo)

• 1W: The 145-week view shows an outstanding +115% gain from 178.82 to 384.75, but the recent trend is weak: price is below the 20-week SMA (429) and RSI 14 is 38.33 (bearish). The MACD has crossed below the signal line (-3.14 vs +6.11), a textbook sell signal. The lower BB is 369.92 – current price (384.75) is just above it, suggesting the selloff may be exhausting.
• 1mo: The monthly chart shows a massive +179% rally from 138.07 to 384.86 over 81 bars. RSI 14 is 64.33, not yet overbought. MACD is strongly positive (52.7) and still rising. However, price has fallen back from the 20-month SMA resistance (491.23 upper BB). The monthly trend remains intact, but momentum is cooling.

Bull / Bear Cases

Short-Term (Minutes to Days)

• Bull: The 1m and 15m RSIs are neutral-to-bullish (56.6 and 59.8), and the 1H MACD is narrowing towards a crossover. If gold spot finds support, a bounce from the 1D lower BB (363.70) or the 1W lower BB (369.92) could push price back toward the 1H EMAs (~385-386). The daily ATR of $6 suggests a potential $7-8 move in a few days.
• Bear: Price is below all short-term moving averages on the 1H and 1D. The 1D close of 369.37 (if accurate) is near session lows. The 1D RSI (45.7) has room to fall to oversold. A breakdown below 360.12 (daily low) could accelerate selling to the monthly SMA (251.66) or lower. Volume on the 1D is below its 20-day average, indicating lack of buying conviction.

Long-Term (Weeks to Months)

• Bull: The long-term uptrend from 2020 (178.82 weekly start) remains intact; the monthly MACD is still positive and rising. Gold’s fundamental appeal as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty remains strong. The trust’s assets have grown 54% in a year, reflecting sustained inflows. If gold resumes its rally, GLD could retest the $500 area (1W upper BB 488, 1mo upper BB 491).
• Bear: The weekly MACD has triggered a bearish crossover – a classic sign of a major trend reversal. The 1D and 1W RSIs are both below 50, and price has broken below the 50-week SMA (393). A failure to hold the 1W lower BB (369.92) could lead to a retest of the 200-week SMA (~411? not provided but long-term support). Net income deceleration suggests gold’s price gains are fading. The trust’s operating expenses are rising, slightly increasing the tracking drag.

Key Levels & Triggers

Triggers

• Daily close above $385 (1D EMA 12 at 372.57 not binding yet) would suggest a short-term reversal.
• A break below $360 (1D low) invalidates the near-term bounce thesis and targets $350.
• Gold spot price action (not provided) remains the primary catalyst; watch for COMEX futures moves.
• No earnings or insider events are applicable for this ETV.