AI Multi-Horizon Analysis
1D chart shows price well above all key EMAs; MACD bullish and RSI elevated but not overbought.
AUM peaked at $155.2B in Mar-26, fell 16% in Jun-26; price still above 200-day SMA.
Multi-quarter AUM trajectory decelerated sharply; gold price must stabilize to restore bull thesis.
Gold ETV shows strong multi-quarter AUM growth reversed in latest quarter; price momentum remains bullish with RSI 78.9 and MACD above signal, but large AUM contraction signals caution.
Detailed AI Fundamental Analysis
Business Snapshot
- GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) is a grantor-trust ETV, not an operating company. It holds physical gold bullion; shares represent a fractional interest in that bullion. Economic performance is driven entirely by the gold spot price less the trust's sponsor fee.
- There is no revenue, no product pipeline, no customers, and no debt in the conventional sense — total liabilities at 2026-06-30 were just $45.4M against $130.1B of assets (≈0.03%).
- The only true expense line is the sponsor/trustee fee: $149.8M in the June 2026 quarter, in line with a ~0.4% annual fee on average AUM.
- Scale is still enormous: $130.1B of gold under trust, down from a $155.2B peak in March 2026.
- SEC linkage is the statutory trust entity; there are no "insiders" in the operating-company sense — the vehicle simply issues and redeems baskets against bullion.
Financial Trends
- Total Assets (AUM trajectory): $124.6B (Sep 2025) → $148.5B (Dec 2025, +19.2% QoQ) → $155.2B (Mar 2026, +4.5% QoQ) → $130.1B (Jun 2026, -16.2% QoQ / -$25.1B). Latest period vs four periods ago: +4.4% (+$5.5B). The multi-quarter growth trend inflected sharply into contraction in the latest quarter.
- Shareholders' Equity: tracks assets almost one-for-one — $124.5B → $148.2B → $155.1B → $130.1B. The trust is effectively 100% equity-funded; no leverage.
- Total Liabilities: $38.3M → $247.9M (Dec spike, immaterial at 0.17% of assets) → $56.8M → $45.4M. No debt concerns at any point.
- Net Income (mark-to-market on bullion): +$16.8B (Sep 2025) → +$15.5B (Dec 2025, -7.9% QoQ) → +$10.2B (Mar 2026, -34.0% QoQ) → -$19.4B (Jun 2026, a -$29.6B swing). This is the gold-price mark, not distributable earnings — but the trajectory is a clear deceleration into a significant loss quarter.
- EPS: $49.89 → $42.49 → $27.18 → -$53.54 — same inflection, per share.
- Operating Expenses (sponsor fee): $108.2M → $140.4M (+29.8% QoQ) → $165.7M (+18.0% QoQ) → $149.8M (-9.6% QoQ). Fees scaled up with AUM in Q3/Q4 and down only 9.6% in June even though AUM fell 16.2%. Latest vs four periods ago: +38.4%.
- Margins / FCF: Not applicable — no revenue, and cash from operations is $0 across all four periods, structurally expected for a passive bullion trust that creates/redeems in kind.
Financial Health
- The balance sheet is the cleanest possible for a bullion vehicle: $130.1B in gold assets, $45.4M in liabilities, no leverage, no working-capital stress to speak of.
- The $-19.4B "net loss" in the June quarter is a valuation mark on gold, not a cash burn. Health here is really a function of gold price direction and investor flows.
- The 16.2% QoQ AUM contraction in June 2026 is the key red flag — it tells you either gold marked down significantly, investors redeemed, or both. Two quarters of strong AUM growth (+19.2%, +4.5%) reversed in one quarter.
- Expense drag is modest but not trivial: a ~0.42% annualized fee on the June-quarter asset base compounds against NAV whether gold rises or falls.
- Overall: the legal entity is fundamentally sound. The operative risk is 100% gold price / flows risk, not credit or operational risk.
Insider Activity
- No insider filings found in the 2026-05-19 to 2026-08-17 sentiment window, and none in the Forms 4/5 window (2026-07-18 to 2026-08-17).
- Expected: GLD is a passive grantor trust with no officers or directors in the operating-company sense. Insider filings are not a meaningful signal here.
- The equivalent flow signal for an ETV is creation/redemption activity — visible in the 10-Q's share movement — rather than insider buying/selling. No creation/redemption detail was provided in this payload.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Context
- Only 1D timeframe data was provided — no