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AMDAMD

NASDAQ

Semiconductors

$514.63+3.53%

AI Multi-Horizon Analysis

Short-term50% confidence
Neutral

The 1-minute chart shows an overbought RSI and tight Bollinger Bands, suggesting potential for a brief pause or minor bounce from immediate support levels around $401. Volume is only slightly above average, indicating indecision.

Mid-term60% confidence
Bearish

The hourly and 15-minute charts show bearish momentum with RSI below 40, price below key moving averages (20h SMA, 50h EMA), and a potential MACD crossover. Declining volume on the pullback suggests weak buying interest, and aggressive insider selling adds to downside pressure.

Long-term80% confidence
Bullish

The fundamental trajectory is exceptionally strong, with accelerating revenue, record margins, massive FCF generation, and a robust balance sheet. AMD is well-positioned in secular growth markets. Despite extreme valuation and technical extension (RSI 75+), the core business strength supports a bullish long-term outlook.

Overall AI View70% confidence
Bullish

AMD shows strong fundamental momentum with accelerating revenue and expanding margins, supported by a fortress-like balance sheet. However, extreme valuation and significant insider selling introduce short-term risks. The long-term outlook remains bullish due to secular growth trends, but the stock is technically extended and may see near-term consolidation or pullback.

Detailed AI Fundamental Analysis

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) — Comprehensive Fundamental Briefing

Date: May 7, 2026 | Price: $406.73 | Session High: $432.49 | Session Low: $276.62
Market Status: Regular Hours | Active Timeframe: 1H


Business Snapshot

AMD is a pure-play semiconductor designer specializing in CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions. The company competes primarily with NVIDIA in data-center AI accelerators and with Intel in PC/server CPU markets. As a fabless designer, AMD relies on TSMC for manufacturing. The stock has rallied +159.74% over the past 200 trading days (1D timeframe) and +46.70% over the past 200 hours, reflecting massive investor enthusiasm around AI computing demand.


Financial Trends (4-Period Trajectory)

Revenue Growth — Accelerating sharply
PeriodRevenueQoQ Change
2025-06-28$7,685M
2025-09-27$9,246M+20.3%
2025-12-27$34,639M (full year)
2026-03-28$10,253M+10.9% vs prior Q

The latest quarter (March 2026) produced $10.25B in revenue, the highest single quarter in the dataset and representing a 33.4% increase from the June 2025 quarter ($7.685B → $10.253B). This is a clear acceleration trend.

Gross Margin — Inflecting upward
PeriodGross MarginChange
2025-06-2839.80%
2025-09-2751.70%+11.9pp
2025-12-2749.52%-2.2pp
2026-03-2852.82%+3.3pp

Gross margin recovered dramatically from the June 2025 trough (39.80%) and now sits at 52.82% — the highest in the dataset. This suggests improving product mix toward higher-margin data-center products and/or better cost absorption on higher revenue.

Operating Margin — Strong recovery from loss
PeriodOperating MarginChange
2025-06-28-1.74% (loss)
2025-09-2713.74%+15.5pp
2025-12-2710.66%-3.1pp
2026-03-2814.40%+3.7pp

AMD swung from an operating loss in June 2025 to a 14.40% operating margin in March 2026 — a dramatic operational turnaround. Operating income grew from -$134M to $1.476B over four quarters.

Net Margin — Steady expansion
PeriodNet MarginChange
2025-06-2811.35%
2025-09-2713.44%+2.1pp
2025-12-2712.51%-0.9pp
2026-03-2813.49%+1.0pp

Net margins have stabilized in the 12-13.5% range, with the latest quarter at 13.49%. EPS (diluted) grew from $0.54 to $0.84 over four quarters (+55.6%).

Free Cash Flow — Accelerating strongly
PeriodFCFChange
2025-06-28$2,456M
2025-09-27$4,357M+77.4%
2025-12-27$6,735M (full year)
2026-03-28$2,566M

The March 2026 quarter alone generated $2.566B in FCF, annualizing to over $10B. This is a massive cash generation machine — FCF margin is ~25% of revenue.

Balance Sheet Strength — Improving steadily
MetricTrendDetail
Total Assets+6.4% (4Q)$74.8B → $79.6B
Shareholders' Equity+8.0% (4Q)$59.7B → $64.5B
Cash & Equivalents+25.7% (4Q)$4.44B → $5.59B
Long-term Debt-27.0% (4Q)$3.22B → $2.35B
Working Capital+23.5% (4Q)$14.68B → $18.12B
Inventory+20.5% (4Q)$6.68B → $8.05B

Key observation: Inventory is growing faster than revenue (+20.5% vs +33.4% revenue growth over the period), which could signal either building for demand or potential overstock. Cash is piling up while debt is being reduced. The debt-to-equity ratio is an ultra-conservative 0.04.


Financial Health (Latest Period Interpretation)

Verdict: Very strong, with one caution flag.

AMD is in excellent financial health:

  • Record revenue of $10.25B in a single quarter
  • Record gross margins at 52.82%
  • Operating leverage is kicking in — operating income grew faster than revenue (from -$134M to $1.476B)
  • FCF of $2.57B in one quarter provides enormous strategic flexibility
  • Balance sheet is fortress-grade: $5.59B cash vs only $2.35B debt, $64.5B equity base
  • Retained earnings more than doubled from $3.95B to $8.08B over four quarters

Caution: Inventory grew from $6.68B to $8.05B (+20.5%) while revenue grew 33.4% over the same period. This is a manageable gap, but if demand softens, inventory could become a drag. The current ratio of 2.72 provides ample buffer.


Insider Activity

Overall Sentiment: Neutral (-10) on a -100 to +100 scale

Summary (Feb 6 – May 7, 2026)
MetricValue
Total Buys$509,100 (8 transactions)
Total Sells$59,968,048 (32 transactions)
Net Flow-$59,458,948
Notable Transactions (Most Recent 30 Days)
DateInsiderActionValuePrice
Apr 28Mark Papermaster (CTO)Sell$10,962,000$350
Apr 17Mark PapermasterBuy$509,100$84.85
Apr 17Mark PapermasterSell$1,533,240$255.54
Apr 17Mark PapermasterSell$7,454,975$275
Apr 8Mark PapermasterSell$740,925$225

Interpretation: The CTO, Mark Papermaster, executed a buy at $84.85 (likely an option exercise or ESPP) and immediately sold at much higher prices ($225-$350). The net insider flow is overwhelmingly sell-side — nearly $60M sold vs only $509K bought. While some sales are likely for tax/planning purposes (the buy at $84.85 suggests option exercise), the magnitude of selling at current elevated levels is a cautionary signal.


Multi-Timeframe Technical Context

Ultra-Short (1m) — Overbought bounce
  • RSI(14)=74.3 — overbought on the 1-minute chart
  • Price ($406.73) is above all EMAs (12/26/50) and SMAs (20/50/200)
  • MACD positive and rising (0.195 vs signal 0.145)
  • Bollinger Bands are tight: upper $407.35, lower $404.50 — only $2.85 wide
  • ATR=0.75 — very low volatility at this timeframe
  • Volume is slightly above average (57.7K vs 54.3K SMA)
Short-Term (5m/15m) — Bearish momentum
  • 5m: RSI(14)=45.33 — neutral-to-bearish; price below EMA(50) of $407.62; MACD negative
  • 15m: RSI(14)=40.1 — bearish; price below all EMAs (12/26/50); MACD negative and declining
  • Key observation: The 15m chart shows a -18.78% drop from session high ($432.49 → $406.73). The Bollinger Bands are wide ($399-$418), suggesting high intraday volatility.
Medium-Term (1H) — Post-rally pullback
  • RSI(14)=39.81 — bearish on the hourly chart
  • Price has broken below the 20-hour SMA ($413.67) and is testing the 50-hour EMA ($394.88)
  • MACD is positive (3.38) but the signal line (6.40) is above — bearish crossover setup
  • ATR=5.62 — high hourly volatility
  • The 200-hour SMA at $343.85 is well below current price, indicating the long-term trend is still up
Long-Term (1D) — Strong uptrend, extended
  • RSI(14)=75.28 — overbought on the daily chart
  • RSI(21)=79.13 — also overbought
  • Price is massively above all major moving averages: SMA(20)=$315.60, SMA(50)=$249.43, SMA(200)=$215.86
  • MACD is positive and rising (41.64 vs signal 33.97)
  • Bollinger Bands are very wide ($213-$418), reflecting extreme volatility
  • The daily chart shows a +159.74% gain over 200 days
Volume Analysis
  • 1D volume: 36.7M shares vs 45.3M SMA — below average for the daily timeframe
  • 1H volume: 264.7K vs 3.1M SMA — significantly below average on the hourly chart
  • This suggests the current pullback is happening on reduced participation, which could mean either a healthy pause or lack of buying conviction

Bull / Bear Cases

Short-Term (Hours to Days)

Bull Case:

  • The 1m chart is oversold within the context of an overbought daily trend — a bounce from $401-$404 support is possible
  • The 15m MACD is showing potential for a bullish crossover as the signal line flattens
  • Daily RSI above 75 indicates momentum is still strong; pullbacks in strong uptrends tend to be bought
  • The $400 round number could act as psychological support

Bear Case:

  • The 15m and 1H charts both show bearish RSI readings (40.1 and 39.8 respectively)
  • Price has broken below the 20-hour SMA ($413.67) and is approaching the 50-hour EMA ($394.88)
  • Insider selling of nearly $60M in recent weeks suggests those closest to the business are taking profits
  • Volume is declining on this pullback, suggesting weak buying interest at current levels
  • The session high of $432.49 may act as near-term resistance
Long-Term (Weeks to Months)

Bull Case:

  • Fundamental momentum is accelerating: Revenue up 33.4% over four quarters, gross margins at record highs (52.82%), operating margins expanding from -1.74% to 14.40%
  • FCF generation is extraordinary: $2.57B in a single quarter — annualizing to ~$10B+
  • Balance sheet is fortress-grade: $5.59B cash, only $2.35B debt, $64.5B equity
  • Retained earnings doubled from $3.95B to $8.08B, indicating sustainable profitability
  • The company is in a secular growth market (AI accelerators, data-center CPUs) with massive TAM expansion
  • The stock is in a powerful long-term uptrend (+159.74% over 200 days) with all major moving averages sloping upward

Bear Case:

  • Valuation is extreme: At $406.73 and $10.25B quarterly revenue, the market cap is ~$663B (1.63B shares × $406.73). This implies a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x trailing revenue — very high even for a growth semiconductor company
  • Insider selling is aggressive: $60M in sales vs only $509K in buys over the past 3 months
  • Inventory buildup: +20.5% over four quarters could signal demand normalization
  • Technical extension: Daily RSI above 75 and price 88% above the 200-day SMA ($215.86) suggest the stock is overextended
  • Competitive risk: NVIDIA dominates the AI accelerator market, and any share loss or product delays could impact the narrative
  • The daily Bollinger Band upper rail at $417.57 suggests the stock is trading near the upper boundary of its normal range

Key Levels & Triggers

Support Levels (downward)
LevelTimeframeSignificance
$401.08Intraday (1m/5m)Session low — immediate support
$399.0415mLower Bollinger Band
$394.881H50-hour EMA — critical near-term support
$389.461H50-hour SMA
$343.851H200-hour SMA — major support
$315.601D20-day SMA
$249.431D50-day SMA
Resistance Levels (upward)
LevelTimeframeSignificance
$413.671H20-hour SMA — immediate resistance
$417.571DUpper Bollinger Band
$422.761HUpper Bollinger Band
$430.601D200-day high
$432.49SessionToday's high
Key Triggers to Watch
  1. Break above $413.67 (20-hour SMA) → could signal short-term momentum reversal
  2. Break below $401.08 (session low) → could accelerate selling toward $394-$389
  3. Volume pickup — current below-average volume on pullback is ambiguous; a volume spike in either direction would provide conviction
  4. Insider filings — continued insider selling at these levels would be a negative signal
  5. Sector rotation — any shift away from AI/semiconductors could disproportionately impact AMD given its valuation
Price Action Summary
HorizonBiasKey Level
Ultra-Short (minutes)Neutral-to-bullish (oversold bounce)$401 support
Short (hours-days)Bearish (momentum breakdown)$395 support
Long (weeks-months)Bullish (secular trend intact)$315 (20-day SMA)

Financials

From SEC EDGAR · Period 2026-03-28 · Source form 10-Q

Income Statement · last 4 periods

 
2026-03-28
10-Q
2025-12-27
10-K
2025-09-27
10-Q
2025-06-28
10-Q
Revenue$10.25B$34.64B$9.25B$7.68B
Gross Profit$5.42B$17.15B$4.78B$3.06B
Operating Income$1.48B$3.69B$1.27B-$134.00M
Net Income$1.38B$4.33B$1.24B$872.00M
EPS (Diluted)$0.84$2.65$0.75$0.54
Gross Margin52.82%49.52%51.70%39.80%
Operating Margin14.40%10.66%13.74%-1.74%
Net Margin13.49%12.51%13.44%11.35%

Balance Sheet · last 4 periods

 
2026-03-28
10-Q
2025-12-27
10-Q
2025-09-27
10-Q
2025-06-28
10-Q
Total Assets$79.64B$76.93B$76.89B$74.82B
Shareholders' Equity$64.46B$63.00B$60.79B$59.66B
Cash & Equivalents$5.58B$5.54B$4.81B$4.44B
Long-term Debt$2.35B$2.35B$2.35B$3.22B
Current Ratio2.722.852.312.49
Debt / Equity0.040.040.040.05

Cash Flow · last 4 periods

 
2026-03-28
10-Q
2025-12-27
10-K
2025-09-27
10-Q
2025-06-28
10-Q
Cash from Operations$2.96B$7.71B$5.11B$2.95B
Cash from Investing-$2.56B-$5.53B-$3.99B-$2.65B
Cash from Financing-$350.00M-$431.00M-$103.00M$347.00M
Capital Expenditures$389.00M$974.00M$752.00M$494.00M
Free Cash Flow$2.57B$6.74B$4.36B$2.46B

Income Statement

Revenue
$10.25B
Gross Profit
$5.42B
Operating Income
$1.48B
Net Income
$1.38B
EPS (Basic)
$0.85
EPS (Diluted)
$0.84

Balance Sheet

Total Assets
$79.64B
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
$64.46B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.06B
Long-term Debt
$2.35B
Shares Outstanding
1.63B

Cash Flow

Cash from Operations
$2.96B
Cash from Investing
-$2.56B
Cash from Financing
-$350.00M
Capital Expenditures
$389.00M
Free Cash Flow
$2.57B

Key Ratios

Gross Margin
52.82%
Operating Margin
14.40%
Net Margin
13.49%
Current Ratio
2.72
Debt / Equity
0.04
Free Cash Flow
$2.57B

Insider Activity

3 insider filings (2026-04-07 to 2026-05-07) — sourced directly from SEC Forms 4/5

Buys
$509.1K · 1
Sells
$20.69M · 5
Net
-$20.18M
Filings Parsed
3
Trade DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValue
2026-04-24Papermaster Mark DSell31,320$350.00$10.96M
2026-04-16Papermaster Mark DSell27,109$275.00$7.45M
2026-04-15Papermaster Mark DBuy6,000$84.85$509.1K
2026-04-15Papermaster Mark DSell6,000$255.54$1.53M
2026-04-15Papermaster Mark DSell6,000$0.00$0.00
2026-04-06Papermaster Mark DSell3,293$225.00$740.9K

Key Stats

$463.82BMarket cap
$352.9952-week high
$91.8752-week low
38,093,762Avg volume (30d)

31,000 employees1.63B shares outstandinglisted 1973-01-02

Next earnings ~May 1, 2026

About AMD

Advanced Micro Devices designs a variety of digital semiconductors for markets such as PCs, gaming consoles, data centers (including artificial intelligence), industrial, and automotive applications. AMD's traditional strength was in central processing units and graphics processing units used in PCs and data centers. However, AMD is emerging as a prominent player in AI GPUs and related hardware. Additionally, the firm supplies the chips found in prominent game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox.

Recent SimianX AI Analyses

  • decisionconfidence 65%

    MARKET STATE: AMD in short-term consolidation/pullback within a broader bullish trend, testing lower Bollinger Band support amid low volume and weakening momentum on 1H timeframe, with regular hours liquidity still solid but post-market approaching. MY READ: Fundamentals and market intelligence align bullish (Cramer endorsement + tech highlights), but technicals show clear short-term bearish momentum (MACD bear cross, RSI<50) and price below key EMAs, suggesting a corrective dip rather than immediate upside conviction. Inputs disagree sharply, creating uncertainty for hours-to-half-day horizon—no clear edge for chasing or entering now. Low volume reinforces lack of buyer conviction; better to wait for alignment or higher low. MY ANALYSIS: Trend is mixed: broader EMAs/SMAs bullish but short-term indicators (MACD, RSI) bearish with inside bar consolidation—classic pullback setup, not reversal. Fundamentals provide tailwind (0.7 conf), intel sentiment bullish (Cramer call medium impact), but technical strength only 0.45 and price hugging support at ~404-406 without volume pop. No earnings/proximity risks noted; sector (semis) likely fine but relative strength unclear. R/R unappealing without momentum shift—mean reversion risky here. Pre/post-market liquidity drop adds caution. AI DECISION (for next hours to half a day): Action: NO_TRADE Confidence: 0.65 Rationale: Divergent signals (bull fund/intel vs bear tech) with low conviction momentum and extended pullback kill any long setup—entering now fights the 1H tape and risks chop into post-market. HARD TREND RULE blocks long on bearish technicals without structural break (none evident). Waiting for volume/buyers to confirm support bounce is free; bad fills on disagreement cost real edge. Will reassess on momentum flip or better price.

  • indicatorNeutral

    AMD is showing immediate intraday weakness below key short-term moving averages and the BB Lower, despite a bullish EMA trend and high volume on the dip.

  • indicatorBearish

    Short-term bearish divergence on momentum indicators below key moving averages suggests a potential pullback, despite a longer-term bullish trend.

  • intelligenceconfidence 70%

    Jim Cramer's strong endorsement and positive news regarding AMD's GPU technology are expected to drive bullish sentiment in the short term, despite broader market uncertainties.

  • indicatorNeutral

    AMD is consolidating below its 12-period EMA, with RSI and MACD showing bearish divergence, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback before resuming its uptrend.

  • intelligenceconfidence 80%

    Jim Cramer's strong bullish call on AMD, coupled with advancements in AI hardware, positions the stock for upside despite broader market caution.

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