AI Multi-Horizon Analysis
Price is below all short-term EMAs/SMAs and near the lower Bollinger Band; RSI-14 at 40.4 is weak but not oversold. Elevated volume versus the 20-bar average hints at potential short-term volatility.
Both 15m and 1h charts show price below key moving averages and negative MACD; the 1h series has declined 21.73% over 200 bars. RSI-14 at 36.97 on 15m and 38.28 on 1h indicate weak momentum but not yet capitulation.
Daily and weekly structures remain bearish with price below every major moving average. Daily RSI-14 at 18.08 is extremely oversold, but no reversal confirmation yet. Monthly series is still positive, yet MACD and price action favor the bears.
Tesla's revenue recovered sequentially but margins collapsed, FCF cratered, and liabilities outpaced equity growth; technicals remain bearish across daily and weekly frames with deeply oversold readings that could trigger short-term rebounds.
Detailed AI Fundamental Analysis
Business Snapshot
- Tesla, Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed US common stock under ticker TSLA. The payload does not provide a sector or industry classification.
- The latest supplied price is $309.31. The session range was $293.43–$399.36, indicating exceptionally high intraday volatility.
- Tesla’s reported revenue was $28.236 billion in the latest period. The business generated $398 million of operating income and $1.114 billion of net income.
Financial Trends
- Revenue: Latest revenue rose to $28.236B from $22.387B, a $5.849B increase (+26.1%) versus the prior period. Compared with the oldest supplied quarter, revenue was essentially flat: $28.236B versus $28.095B, up $141M (+0.5%). The annual 2025 figure of $94.827B is not directly comparable with the quarterly figures.
- Gross margin: Gross profit increased only $31M, from $4.720B to $4.751B, while gross margin contracted from 21.08% to 16.83%, a 4.25 percentage-point decline. Versus the oldest quarter’s 17.99%, the latest margin is down 1.16 points.
- Operating performance: Operating expenses increased from $3.779B to $4.353B, up $574M (+15.2%). Operating income fell from $941M to $398M, down $543M (-57.7%); operating margin declined from 4.20% to 1.41%. Against the oldest supplied quarter, operating income fell $1.226B, from $1.624B, and margin declined 4.37 points from 5.78%.
- Net income and EPS: Net income rose from $477M to $1.114B, up $637M, and diluted EPS increased from $0.13 to $0.32. This improvement contrasts with the deterioration in operating income and gross margin, so the payload does not establish that core operating profitability improved.
- Free cash flow: FCF declined from $1.444B to $352M, down $1.092B (-75.6%) sequentially. Versus the oldest quarter’s $4.800B, latest FCF is down $4.448B (-92.7%). The trajectory is sharply weaker. Capital expenditures rose from $2.493B to $8.282B, while operating cash flow increased from $3.937B to $8.634B.
- Cash and liquidity: Cash declined from $16.603B to $15.219B, down $1.384B, and is down $3.070B (-16.8%) from $18.289B four periods ago. Current assets fell sequentially by $990M, while current liabilities rose $1.287B. The current ratio declined from 2.04 to 1.94, and from 2.07 four periods ago.
- Balance sheet growth: Total assets increased from $143.724B to $148.524B sequentially and from $133.735B four periods ago, a $14.789B (+11.1%) increase. Equity rose from $84.116B to $86.858B and from $79.970B four periods ago. Liabilities, however, increased from $58.922B to $61.005B and from $53.019B, a $7.986B (+15.1%) increase over four periods.
- Inventory: Inventory declined sequentially from $14.434B to $13.752B, but remains $1.476B (+12.0%) above the oldest supplied quarter.
- Shares: Reported shares outstanding increased from 3.755B to 3.949B sequentially and from 3.324B four periods ago. The supplied weighted-average diluted share count was comparatively stable across the quarterly income statement, so the two share measures should not be treated as identical.
Financial Health
- The latest balance sheet remains liquid, with $15.219B of cash, $68.758B of current assets, and a 1.94 current ratio. However, liquidity has weakened from four periods ago, when cash was $18.289B and the current ratio was 2.07.
- The key concern is cash conversion: latest FCF of $352M is far below both the prior quarter’s $1.444B and the oldest supplied quarter’s $4.800B, primarily alongside a major increase in capital expenditures.
- Profitability is also under pressure. Revenue recovered sequentially, but gross margin fell sharply to 16.83% and operating margin to 1.41%. This indicates weaker operating leverage despite higher reported sales.
- Total assets and equity are growing, but liabilities are growing faster than equity over the four-period comparison. The payload does not provide debt values or a debt-to-equity ratio, so leverage cannot be fully assessed.
- Overall, the latest period shows adequate near-term balance-sheet liquidity but a deteriorating profitability and FCF trajectory. The investment case requires evidence that the heavy investment cycle can translate into improving margins and cash generation.
Insider Activity
- No insider sentiment or insider transaction data was provided. Insider buying, selling, and ownership trends therefore cannot be assessed.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Context
- Ultra-short term — minutes: On the 1-minute data, TSLA is below its EMA-12, EMA-26, EMA-50, SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200. RSI-14 is 40.4, MACD is -0.0391 versus a 0.009 signal, and price is near the lower Bollinger Band at $309.36. This is a weak intraminute setup, though the current volume of 6,638 is above the 20-bar average of 2,029.
- Short term — hours to days: The 15-minute close is $309.31, below the EMA-12, EMA-26, EMA-50, and SMA-20. RSI-14 is 36.97, MACD is negative, and price is near the lower Bollinger Band at $308.85. The 1-hour chart shows a larger 200-bar decline of 21.73%, with price below the SMA-20 and far below the SMA-200 of $342.38. RSI-14 is 38.28, consistent with weak momentum but not an extreme RSI reading on that measure.
- Long term — weeks to months: The daily chart is decisively bearish: the latest daily close of $311.21 is below EMA-12 ($333.30), EMA-26 ($359.02), EMA-50 ($376.70), SMA-20 ($363.93), SMA-50 ($390.76), and SMA-200 ($411.60). Daily RSI-14 is 18.08, which signals deeply oversold conditions, while MACD remains negative.
- The weekly chart also remains weak, with price below the weekly EMA-12, EMA-26, EMA-50, SMA-20, and SMA-50. The weekly close is near but below the lower Bollinger Band at $316.20, and MACD is below its signal line.
- The monthly picture is mixed rather than uniformly bearish: the 81-bar monthly series is up 1,375.77%, and price remains above the monthly EMA-50 of $302.75 and lower Bollinger Band of $248.91. However, price is below the monthly EMA-12, SMA-20, and upper trend averages, while monthly MACD is below its signal line.
- Across horizons, the immediate setup is oversold and volatile, but the daily and weekly trend structure remains bearish. Oversold readings can support a rebound without confirming a durable trend reversal.
Bull / Bear Cases
- Short-term bull case: The sharp decline and low RSI readings—especially daily RSI-14 at 18.08—leave room for a technical rebound. Price is near the lower Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute, weekly, and monthly charts. A recovery above the 15-minute middle band near $309.98 and upper band near $311.10, followed by sustained strength above the 1-hour middle band near $310.28, would improve the immediate setup.
- Short-term bear case: Price remains below most short-term moving averages, and the 1-hour series has fallen 21.73% over its 200 bars. A break below the session low of $293.43 would signal renewed downside pressure. The very large session range and elevated ATR values—$3.07 hourly and $15.85 daily—make stop placement and position sizing particularly important.
- Long-term bull case: Total assets increased 11.1% over the four supplied periods, equity increased from $79.970B to $86.858B, and the latest quarter produced $8.634B of operating cash flow. The monthly series also remains substantially above its historical starting level in the supplied sample. A long-term bullish thesis would depend on high capital expenditures eventually supporting renewed revenue growth, margin expansion, and FCF recovery.
- Long-term bear case: Revenue is nearly unchanged versus the oldest supplied quarter, while gross margin fell from 17.99% to 16.83% and operating margin from 5.78% to 1.41%. FCF collapsed from $4.800B to $352M, cash declined 16.8%, and liabilities rose faster than equity. The daily and weekly charts remain below major moving averages, reinforcing the risk that the market is pricing a prolonged earnings and cash-flow reset.
- The payload contains no valuation multiples, analyst targets, company guidance, or forward estimates, so valuation-based bull and bear arguments cannot be quantified here.
Key Levels & Triggers
- Immediate support: Session low $293.43; 1-minute lower Bollinger Band $309.36; 15-minute lower Bollinger Band $308.85. The Bollinger levels are dynamic indicators rather than established horizontal support.
- Near-term resistance: 15-minute middle band $309.98, 1-hour middle band $310.28, 15-minute upper band $311.10, and current daily close reference $311.21.
- Higher resistance: 1-hour upper Bollinger Band $314.92; daily EMA-12 $333.30; 1-hour SMA-200 $342.38; daily SMA-20 $363.93; daily EMA-50 $376.70.
- Major trend resistance: Daily SMA-50 $390.76, daily SMA-200 $411.60, and the supplied session high of $399.36.
- Bullish trigger: Reclaiming and holding the $310–$315 area would be the first sign of short-term stabilization. A later move above $333.30 would challenge the daily EMA-12; sustained recovery above the daily SMA-20 at $363.93 would be more meaningful for the multi-week trend.
- Bearish trigger: A decisive break below $293.43 would expose renewed downside risk. On the longer-term chart, continued failure below the daily and weekly moving-average clusters would keep the primary trend bearish.
- Fundamental trigger: The most important confirmation would be a reversal in the reported trajectory: improving gross and operating margins, materially higher FCF after the elevated capex period, stabilization of cash, and revenue growth that outpaces expense growth.