Phân tích AI Đa Khung thời gian
No intraday 1-minute or hourly data provided; market is closed. No actionable ultra-short setup.
Daily price closed at 401.17, above the 12/26/50-day EMAs but below the 20-day SMA at 406.62 and 200-day SMA at 416.22. Negative MACD and below-average volume keep the bias neutral. Key resistance at 406.62, support near 399.
Price below the 200-day SMA and MACD remains negative, keeping the long-term trend cautious. Balance sheet is asset-heavy with minimal liabilities, but earnings volatility and lack of cash-flow data limit fundamental conviction.
GLD shows a mixed technical profile with price above short-term EMAs but below the 20-day and 200-day averages, and a negative MACD on the daily chart. The balance sheet is asset-backed with negligible liabilities, but the latest reported net income swung to a $19.4B loss, creating earnings volatility that limits conviction. No insider filings are available. Overall bias is neutral with moderate confidence.
Phân tích cơ bản AI chi tiết
Business Snapshot
- GLD is the SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded vehicle listed on ARCA, not an operating company.
- Its investment profile is primarily tied to gold-price exposure. Traditional operating metrics such as revenue, gross margin, and free cash flow are therefore limited or not meaningful in the provided filing data.
- The latest quoted price is $401.17. The session is closed. The supplied session range is unusually wide at $363.32–$509.70, so it should be treated cautiously as a potential data-quality or adjusted-price issue.
- No analyst targets, guidance, holdings detail, or expense-ratio data were provided.
Financial Trends
- Revenue: No revenue figures were provided for any of the four periods, so a revenue trajectory cannot be established.
- Margins: Gross, operating, and net margins are unavailable for all periods. Operating expenses rose from $108.193 million on 2025-09-30 to $140.413 million on 2025-12-31, then $165.651 million on 2026-03-31, before declining to $149.764 million on 2026-06-30. Thus, expenses increased sharply through Q1 2026 and eased by $15.887 million, or about 9.6%, in the latest period, while remaining $41.571 million, or about 38.4%, above the four-period-ago level.
- Net income and EPS: Net income declined from $16.831 billion on 2025-09-30 to $15.494 billion on 2025-12-31, then $10.223 billion on 2026-03-31, and finally swung to a $19.377 billion loss on 2026-06-30. EPS followed the same deterioration: $49.89, $42.49, $27.18, then -$53.54. The latest quarter represents a sequential decline of $29.600 billion in net income versus Q1 2026 and a $36.208 billion decline versus four periods ago.
- Cash flow: Cash from operations was reported as $0 in every period. Free cash flow was not provided. This means the filings supplied here do not support a conventional cash-generation trend analysis.
- Assets and equity: Total assets rose from $124.571 billion on 2025-09-30 to $148.476 billion on 2025-12-31 and $155.168 billion on 2026-03-31, then fell to $130.099 billion on 2026-06-30. The latest decline was $25.069 billion, or about 16.2%, sequentially, though assets remained $5.528 billion, or about 4.4%, above the four-period-ago level.
- Shareholders’ equity moved from $124.533 billion to $148.228 billion, $155.111 billion, and then $130.053 billion. It declined $25.058 billion, or about 16.2%, from the prior period, but remained about 4.4% above the 2025-09-30 level.
- Liabilities: Total liabilities were $38.255 million, $247.937 million, $56.775 million, and $45.418 million, respectively. Liabilities remain very small relative to assets, and decreased $11.357 million, or about 20.0%, from the prior period. The December spike was temporary rather than a continuing upward trend.
- The large changes in assets, equity, net income, and EPS are more consistent with changes in the trust’s gold-related holdings and valuation than with an ordinary operating-business earnings cycle. The supplied statements should therefore be interpreted carefully.
Financial Health
- The latest balance sheet appears structurally strong based on the reported figures: $130.099 billion of assets versus only $45.418 million of liabilities, leaving $130.053 billion of equity.
- Reported liabilities are approximately 0.035% of assets, indicating very limited balance-sheet leverage on the supplied data. Current ratio, working capital, and debt-to-equity were not provided.
- The main deterioration is in the latest reported earnings: net income moved from $10.223 billion to a $19.377 billion loss, and EPS fell from $27.18 to -$53.54. For a gold trust, this may reflect mark-to-market or trust-accounting effects rather than a conventional operating collapse, but the payload does not provide enough detail to determine the cause.
- Cash-flow information is insufficient: operating cash flow is reported as zero in every period and free cash flow is unavailable. Investors should not infer that the trust generated no economic value solely from these fields.
- Overall, the balance sheet looks asset-backed and lightly leveraged, but the latest income-statement volatility is high and limits the usefulness of reported net income as a standalone valuation signal.
Insider Activity
- No insider sentiment data or Forms 4/5 filings were found for the specified periods.
- Because GLD is an exchange-traded trust rather than a conventional operating corporation, insider transactions are generally less informative than they would be for an individual-company common stock.
- There is no filing-based insider buying or selling signal in the supplied data.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Context
- Ultra-short horizon — minutes: No intraday 1-minute through hourly data was provided, so a minutes-level momentum or order-flow assessment is unavailable. The market is closed.
- Short horizon — hours to days: On the daily timeframe, GLD closed at $401.17, up 3.16% across the supplied 200-bar window from an opening value of $388.87. RSI-14 is 44.34 and RSI-21 is 43.92, indicating neutral-to-soft momentum rather than an overbought condition.
- MACD is -0.6996 versus a signal line of 1.1257, a negative spread of about -1.83, which is bearish momentum confirmation on the daily chart.
- Price is slightly above the 12-day EMA of $399.76, 26-day EMA of $400.46, and 50-day EMA of $398.60, but below the 20-day SMA/Bollinger middle band at $406.62 and well below the 200-day SMA of $416.22. This creates a mixed setup: short-term stabilization near the shorter EMAs, but overhead resistance from the 20-day and 200-day averages.
- Bollinger Bands are $383.05 lower, $406.62 middle, and $430.18 upper. The current price is above the lower band but below the midpoint, leaving room for either a rebound toward $406.62 or renewed weakness toward $383.05.
- ATR is $7.65, implying substantial daily movement relative to the current price. Current volume of approximately 9.52 million is below the 20-day average of approximately 11.60 million, or about 17.9% lower, so the latest move lacks above-average volume confirmation.
- Longer horizon — weeks to months: The price remains below the 200-day SMA, and MACD remains negative, keeping the longer-term technical bias cautious. A sustained move above the $416.22 200-day average would improve the trend profile; failure near the $406–$416 area could leave the security vulnerable to a retest of the lower-band region near $383.
Bull / Bear Cases
- Short-term bull case: Price holding above the short-term EMA cluster around $399–$400, followed by a move above the $406.62 20-day average, could signal improving near-term momentum. RSI is not overbought, so there is room for a technical rebound. A break above the 20-day average could target the $416.22 200-day SMA.
- Short-term bear case: The negative MACD configuration, sub-average volume, and price below both the 20-day and 200-day averages favor caution. A failure to hold the $399–$400 EMA area could expose the $383.05 lower Bollinger Band. The unusually wide reported session range also raises data-quality and volatility concerns.
- Long-term bull case: GLD’s reported balance sheet is heavily asset-backed, with roughly $130.1 billion of assets and only $45.4 million of liabilities in the latest period. If gold prices strengthen, the trust structure provides direct exposure without the operating-company risks associated with mining costs, production execution, or corporate debt.
- Long-term bear case: The security remains below its 200-day average, and the latest reported net income swung to a $19.377 billion loss after three profitable periods. Although trust accounting may explain some volatility, the supplied data does not establish a durable fundamental earnings trend. A sustained break below the short- and medium-term moving averages would weaken the technical outlook.
Key Levels & Triggers
- Immediate support: Approximately $398.60–$400.46, represented by the 50-day EMA and 26-day EMA, with the 12-day EMA at $399.76.
- First resistance: $406.62, the 20-day SMA and Bollinger middle band.
- Major trend resistance: $416.22, the 200-day SMA. A sustained close above this level would be a meaningful improvement in the weeks-to-months trend.
- Downside reference: $383.05, the lower Bollinger Band. A decisive break below it would indicate expanding downside momentum, though ATR of $7.65 implies that intraday or daily overshoots are possible.
- Momentum trigger: MACD needs to recover above its signal line of 1.1257 from the current -0.6996 reading to provide a clearer bullish confirmation.
- Volume trigger: A breakout above $406.62 or $416.22 would be more credible if volume rises above the approximately 11.60 million 20-day average.
- Data caution: The supplied session high and low—$509.70 and $363.32—are extremely wide relative to the current price and should be verified against a reliable market-data source before using them as actionable intraday levels.