State Street SPDR S&P 500SPY

ARCA

US$750.05-0.47%

멀티 에이전트 실시간 분석 커맨드룸 시작 8개 에이전트 심층 분석 시작

AI 멀티 호라이즌 분석

단기신뢰도 80%

약세

Sharp 1m decline of -0.62% with oversold RSI_14 at 30.28, price below all EMAs/SMAs, and MACD negative.

중기신뢰도 70%

약세

1H and 15m frames show fading momentum with MACD bearish signals and volume divergence on the daily rally.

장기신뢰도 55%

중립

Daily trend is up +17.7% but MACD bearish divergence and low volume on rally suggest potential correction.

AI 종합 판단신뢰도 65%

약세

SPY shows short-term weakness with oversold 1m RSI and bearish MACD across intraday frames, while the longer-term uptrend remains intact but momentum is fading on declining volume.

상세 AI 펀더멘털 분석

이 분석은 원래 영어로 작성되었습니다. 한국어 캐시 버전이 아직 없습니다 — 위에서 실시간 분석을 실행하여 생성하세요.

Business Snapshot

SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a passive exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index. It is one of the largest and most liquid ETFs globally, providing broad U.S. large-cap equity exposure.
As an ETF, its performance mirrors the underlying index, and its fundamental "business" is the aggregate of 500 leading U.S. companies. There is no standalone corporate revenue, earnings, or management to evaluate.
The fund has been listed since 1993 (ARCA exchange) and trades in USD. Its net asset value (NAV) closely tracks the index, with minor deviations due to fees and trading mechanics.

Financial Trends

No applicable financial data available. As an ETF, SPY does not report revenue, net income, free cash flow, or balance sheet items like a corporation. The provided payload contains no income statement, balance sheet, or cash flow data across any periods.
The only financial trajectory to note is the price action itself: over the 200-day daily timeframe, SPY has risen from an open of $637.46 to a current $750.31, a gain of +17.7%. This reflects the underlying S&P 500's upward trend over that period.
Trend assessment: Not applicable — no multi-period financials to analyze for revenue, margins, or FCF deltas. The fund's expense ratio (not provided) is the primary cost consideration for holders.

Financial Health

Not assessable via traditional metrics. SPY's "health" is a function of the S&P 500's composition, not its own financial statements. No debt, cash, or equity ratios exist.
The fund's liquidity is extremely high, as evidenced by the large volume numbers (e.g., 11.6M shares on the daily timeframe, with a 20-period SMA of 46.3M). This suggests tight bid-ask spreads and minimal tracking error.
The ETF structure itself is robust — no bankruptcy risk, no earnings volatility, and no management discretion beyond index replication.

Insider Activity

No insider filings found in the specified period (2026-02-26 to 2026-05-27). This is expected for an ETF trust, which has no corporate insiders (executives, directors, etc.) to file Forms 4/5.
Insider sentiment data is also absent. For SPY, insider activity is irrelevant — the fund's performance is driven entirely by the underlying index.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Context

1m (ultra-short): Price is in a sharp intraday decline, down -0.62% over the last 200 bars. RSI_14 at 30.28 is oversold, and price is below all EMAs (12, 26, 50) and SMAs (20, 50, 200). MACD is negative and below signal. Volume is below the 20-period average (82.3K vs 104.8K). The lower Bollinger Band is at $748.24 — price is hugging it, indicating selling pressure.
5m (short): Also declining, but less severely (-0.15% over 200 bars). RSI_14 at 56.47 is neutral. Price is below the 50-period SMA ($751.64) but near the 20-period SMA ($750.53). MACD is negative but flattening. Volume is well below average (225K vs 526K). ATR is wider (0.87) than the 1m, suggesting choppiness.
15m (intraday): Over a longer 200-bar window, price is up +1.64% from $738.22, but the current bar shows a pullback. RSI_14 at 37.53 is approaching oversold. Price is below the 20-period SMA ($751.72) but above the 200-period SMA ($747.12). MACD is negative and diverging from signal. Volume is below average (472K vs 574K).
1H (key short-term): Up +2.77% over 200 bars from $730.10. RSI_14 at 57.95 is neutral-to-bullish. Price is above the 50-period EMA ($747.47) and 200-period SMA ($740.89). MACD is positive but the signal line is above, suggesting a potential bearish crossover. Volume is nearly double the 20-period average (4.8M vs 2.55M), indicating strong participation in the rally from the $730 area.
1D (long-term): Strong uptrend — up +17.7% from $637.46. RSI_14 at 65.65 and RSI_21 at 70.97 are not yet overbought but are elevated. Price is well above all key moving averages (20, 50, 200 SMAs). MACD is positive but the signal line is above the MACD line, a bearish divergence signal. Volume is significantly below the 20-period average (11.6M vs 46.4M), which could indicate exhaustion in the rally.
Summary: The ultra-short timeframes (1m/5m) show heavy selling pressure and oversold conditions, while the 1H and 1D trends remain bullish but with fading momentum. This is a classic pullback within an uptrend.

Bull / Bear Cases

Short-Term (Minutes to Days)

Bull case: The 1m RSI is oversold (30.28), suggesting a bounce is imminent. The 1H trend is still up (+2.77% over 200 bars), and price is above key support levels ($748.24 1m lower BB, $747.12 15m 200-SMA). A reversal from here could target the 1m/5m SMAs around $749-$751.
Bear case: The 1m/5m downtrend is accelerating with below-average volume, indicating weak buying interest. The 15m MACD is bearish, and the 1H MACD is threatening a bearish crossover. A break below $748.24 (1m lower BB) could trigger a slide toward $747 (15m 200-SMA) or lower. The 1D volume divergence (low volume on rally) suggests the uptrend is losing steam.

Long-Term (Weeks to Months)

Bull case: The 1D trend is unequivocally bullish — price is 17.7% higher over 200 days, above all major moving averages, and RSI is not overbought. The S&P 500's long-term trajectory (as reflected by SPY) remains upward. Pullbacks are buying opportunities within the trend. Key support at the 20-day SMA ($735.29) and 50-day SMA ($700.07) provides a cushion.
Bear case: The 1D MACD bearish crossover signal, coupled with declining volume on the rally, suggests a potential trend reversal or significant correction. The 200-day SMA ($680.01) is far below current price, meaning a 9%+ drop would be needed to retest it. If the broader market rolls over, SPY could see a sharp mean-reversion move. The lack of insider data is irrelevant, but macro risks (not in the data) could weigh.

Key Levels & Triggers

Immediate resistance: $749.37 (15m lower BB), then $750.53-$751.72 (5m/15m SMAs), then $753.44 (session high).
Immediate support: $748.24 (1m lower BB), then $747.12 (15m 200-SMA), then $744-$745 area (prior 1H support).
Key triggers:
- Bullish trigger: A 1m close above $749.25 (1m 20-SMA) with rising volume would signal the pullback is over.
- Bearish trigger: A break below $748.24 (1m lower BB) on the 1m timeframe, sustained for multiple bars, would open the door to $747.
- Long-term trigger: A daily close below $735.29 (20-day SMA) would break the short-term uptrend and suggest a deeper correction toward $700.
No earnings or corporate events are applicable for SPY. The only macro triggers would be S&P 500 index rebalances or macro data releases (not in the data).

주요 지표

—시가총액

US$715.6352주 최고

US$541.5252주 최저

76,846,09430일 평균 거래량

— 임직원 수상장일 1993-01-22배당 수익률 1.01%

배당락일 2026년 3월 20일 · 배당금 $1.80 quarterly

최근 SimianX AI 분석

intelligence—신뢰도 65%
SPY maintains bullish momentum from a record rally, tempered by inflation fears and rising volatility that could trigger corrections.
decision—신뢰도 85%
MARKET STATE: SPY is showing short-term bullish tactical momentum on the 1-minute chart, but remains under significant pressure from broader bearish fundamental and sentiment drivers. MY READ: Although the ultra-short-term technicals are pointing upward, the dominant macro narrative and market intelligence are highly bearish, citing systemic instability and inflation risks. Attempting to go long here would mean fighting a strong bearish macro tape for a minor 1-minute scalp, which offers a poor risk-to-reward ratio. MY ANALYSIS: We have a clear conflict between the short-term 1-minute technical indicators (bullish with 0.65 strength) and the broader fundamental and market intelligence inputs, which are both firmly bearish with high confidence (0.80 sentiment confidence). The bearish catalysts highlight underlying market instability and potential spillover risks from other asset classes. In a long-only framework, taking a position when the macro tape is actively fighting you is a low-probability trade. Disciplined traders know that cash is a position, and waiting for the macro picture to align with technicals is the most profitable approach. AI DECISION (for next minutes to tens of minutes): Action: NO_TRADE Confidence: 0.85 Rationale: The short-term bullish technical bounce on the 1-minute timeframe is fighting a heavily bearish fundamental and sentiment backdrop. With major macro risks and negative catalysts circulating, the probability of a sudden reversal is high. I will protect our capital and wait for a higher-conviction setup where technicals and fundamentals align.
indicator약세
1m price below all EMAs and SMAs with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI, despite a weak bullish engulfing signal.
decision—신뢰도 85%
MARKET STATE: SPY is trading at $748.905 during regular market hours, showing a short-term bullish technical setup on the 1-minute chart against a heavily bearish macro and sentiment backdrop. MY READ: While the 1-minute technical indicators suggest short-term upward momentum, both the fundamental outlook and market intelligence are pointing to significant bearish headwind, driven by inflation repricing and systemic risks. Buying a 1-minute technical bounce when the broader market narrative is highly bearish is a low-probability scalp; the risk of a sudden, sharp reversal is too high to justify a long position. MY ANALYSIS: The technical indicators are flashing a short-term buy signal on the micro-timeframe, but the macro tape is screaming caution. With both fundamental and intelligence inputs heavily aligned on the bear side (sentiment strength at 0.75 bearish), any long entry here would be fighting a strong structural tide. As a veteran trader, I know that trading against the dominant macro narrative on a 1-minute chart often leads to getting caught in bull traps. Since we are long-only, the highest expectancy move here is to protect capital and sit on our hands until we get alignment or a clear structural breakout. AI DECISION (for next minutes to tens of minutes): Action: NO_TRADE Confidence: 0.85 Rationale: There is a clear conflict between the short-term bullish technical indicators and the dominant bearish fundamental/sentiment drivers. Entering a long position under these conditions violates core risk management principles; capital preservation is the priority when macro forces are actively working against the trade.
intelligence—신뢰도 70%
Bearish dominant narrative with selling pressure expected on SPY due to rising instability and inflation risks.
indicator약세
SPY 1m shows oversold RSI but MACD bearish, price below all EMAs, and lighter volume on the decline.