Stock Market After Midterm Elections: Every Cycle 1950–2026

The Midterm Cycle: 19 Elections of S&P 500 Data

Updated October 2026 · S&P 500 data through the October 15, 2026 close

Quick answer: Since 1950 the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after all 19 midterm elections, with an average price gain of +15.1% (median +14.5%; weakest +1.1% in 1986–87, best +33.2% in 1954–55). From election day to December 31 it rose in 13 of 19 cycles, averaging +2.6%.

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On and right after election day: on the 14 midterm election days when the market was open (1970–2022), the S&P 500 rose 10 times, by an average of +0.4%. The next trading day was higher in 15 of 19 cycles (average +0.6%), and so was the first month after the vote (average +1.7%).

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The strongest stretch: from the end of September of the midterm year to the end of June of the next year, the S&P 500 rose in all 19 cycles, by an average of +20.1% — the best three-quarter window of the four-year cycle, against +7.1% for all such windows since 1950.

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Gridlock or one party: the 14 midterms that produced divided government were followed by an average 12-month gain of +15.1%; the five that left one party in control of the White House and both chambers, by +15.0%.

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Bonds and the dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield fell in the three months after 11 of the 16 midterms since 1962; see Treasury yields and the dollar after every midterm.

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2026: The midterms were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. At the October 15, 2026 close the S&P 500 stood at 7,744.06 — up 13.1% year to date and 1.0% below its October 6 record close — far ahead of the typical midterm year, when the median gain by mid-October was just 2.9%.

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Result (as of 1:50 a.m. ET, November 4, 2026): Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House, calls made by AP and NBC News. By AP's count at 1:30 a.m. ET, Democrats had flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats and 16 House seats. Congress will be split from the White House from January 3, 2027.

Election day 2026: key dates

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- October 28: Fed rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, six days before the vote.

- Tuesday, November 3: Election Day. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. U.S. stock markets keep normal hours (9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET). Polls start closing at 6 p.m. ET (parts of Indiana and Kentucky); the last close at 1 a.m. ET on November 4 (western Alaska). Result: Democrats won the Senate and the House (AP and NBC News calls, 1:50 a.m. ET on November 4).

- Results: control of Congress can take days. In 2018 the AP called the House on election night; in 2022 Senate control was settled on November 12 (Nevada) and the House on November 16, eight days after the vote.

- December 1: Georgia runoff for any race in which no candidate wins a majority.

- Lame-duck session: the outgoing 119th Congress returns after the election; current government funding runs through December 11, 2026.

- January 3, 2027: the new 120th Congress is sworn in.

The 2026 midterm elections land on November 3, 2026 — and if history is any guide, the months around that date matter more for the stock market than almost any other recurring event on the calendar. Midterm election years are, on average, the weakest year of the four-year presidential cycle for the S&P 500. They also produce deeper intra-year drawdowns, a famous September–October bottom zone, and one of the most reliable bullish signals in market history: since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election — 19 out of 19.

This is the complete reference: every midterm election year since 1950, the calendar-year return, the approximate intra-year drawdown, what happened the year after, why the pattern exists, and what the setup looks like heading into November 2026.

What the Stock Market Does After Midterm Elections

Measured from election day, the record is lopsided. The table below shows the S&P 500's price return from the midterm election-day close to the last close of that year, and over the following 12 months, for every midterm since 1950.

Methodology: S&P 500 price return, dividends excluded. The starting point is the index close on election day; from 1950 through 1966 the NYSE closed for Election Day, so the previous trading day's close is used. "12 months after" is the close on the same calendar date one year later (or the last trading day before it). Before March 1957 the series is the index's 90-stock predecessor. Daily closes from Yahoo Finance and CNBC agree on every figure in this table, and the 2018 and 2022 rows also match FRED's S&P 500 series.

What the table says:

• The 12-month record is perfect, but not uniform. All 19 windows were positive, yet the spread runs from +33.2% (1954–55) to +1.1% (1986–87, a window that absorbed the October 1987 crash). Five of the 19 gained less than 7%: 1978–79, 1986–87, 2006–07, 2010–11 and 2014–15.
• The first seven weeks lean positive, but only slightly. Election day to year-end was positive 13 times out of 19, averaging +2.6%. The two worst runs were 2018 (−9.0%, the fourth-quarter sell-off that bottomed on December 24) and 1974 (−8.7%), and both were followed by double-digit 12-month gains.
• Weak years set up the biggest rebounds. In the seven midterm years when the S&P 500 was down for the year by mid-October (1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1990, 2002, 2022), the next 12 months from election day averaged +17.7% and never gained less than 12.7%. In the nine years it was already up more than 5% (1950, 1954, 1958, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1998, 2006, 2010), the average was a smaller +13.4%, with a low of +1.1%.
• The best month after a midterm is January. Across the 19 cycles, January of the following year averaged +4.2% and rose 17 times; April averaged +3.4% and rose 18 times; November of the election year itself averaged +2.7% (up 15 of 19). September of the following year was the only month with a negative average (−1.0%, up just 6 times). Our S&P 500 seasonality table shows how those months compare across all years.
• Who wins matters less than you'd think. The 14 midterms that produced divided government were followed by an average 12-month gain of +15.1%, the five that left one party in full control by +15.0%, and the six in which the House changed hands (1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, 2022) by +16.1% — control as recorded by the House and Senate historians. For the full governing-configuration study, see Is Gridlock Good for Stocks? 49 Congresses, 1927–2025; for sector leadership after the vote, see Best Sectors After Midterm Elections.

The midterm is one leg of the four-year pattern: the presidential cycle, year by year since 1928, and how the S&P 500 behaves in presidential election years complete the picture.

What Happens to Stocks on Election Day and Right After

Short answer: the S&P 500 has usually risen on and just after a midterm vote, but only modestly: +0.4% on the average election day (higher 10 of the 14 times the market was open), +0.6% the next trading day (15 of 19) and +1.7% over the first month (15 of 19). The big gains came later, in the three quarters from the end of September of the midterm year to the end of June of the next year.

Election day = the close versus the previous close. The NYSE was closed on Election Day through 1966, so those cells are blank and the later windows start from the previous trading day's close, as in the first table. First week = five trading days after the starting close; first month = the close 30 calendar days later (or the last trading day before it). Q4 = last September close to last December close; Sep 30 → Jun 30 = last September close of the midterm year to last June close of the following year. Daily closes from Yahoo Finance (^GSPC), cross-checked against CNBC (.SPX).

• Election day itself has been close to a coin flip with an upward tilt. The largest moves were +2.8% in 1974 and −1.4% in 1978.
• The day after has leaned positive: higher in 15 of 19 cycles. The best was +3.9% in 1982; the worst were −2.1% in 2022 and −1.8% in 1990.
• The fourth quarter of the midterm year rose in 16 of 19 cycles, by an average of +6.6%, against +4.2% (higher in 61 of 76) for every fourth quarter from 1950 to 2025. The three declines were 2018 (−14.0%), 1978 (−6.3%) and 1994 (−0.7%).
• End of September to end of June is the sweet spot of the whole cycle. It rose in 19 of 19 cycles, by an average of +20.1% (median +18.4%). Across all 305 three-quarter windows that start at a quarter-end since 1950 the average was +7.1%, and no other starting point in the four-year cycle averaged more than +14.2%. The best run was 1974–75 (+49.8%); the weakest were 1978–79 (+0.4%) and 2018–19 (+1.0%).

Why Midterm Years Are the Weakest Year of the Presidential Cycle

The presidential election cycle theory divides the four-year term into post-election (Year 1), midterm (Year 2), pre-election (Year 3), and election (Year 4) years. The historical numbers are not subtle:

• Midterm years (Year 2): +4.6% average S&P 500 price return since 1950 — the weakest of the four.
• Pre-election years (Year 3): +17.2% average — the strongest, and by a wide margin.
• All years 1950–2025: roughly +9.1% average for context.

The gap between Year 2 and Year 3 — more than twelve percentage points — is the core of the midterm pattern. It is not that midterm years are reliably bad; eleven of the nineteen since 1950 finished positive. It is that the path through a midterm year is choppier, the drawdowns are deeper, and the big gains tend to arrive only after the election resolves.

If you want the month-by-month view of this seasonality, our companion reference on S&P 500 seasonality and the best and worst months since 1950 pairs naturally with this table.

Every Midterm Election Year Since 1950: The Reference Table

S&P 500 price returns, dividends excluded. Drawdowns are peak-to-trough within or into the year, rounded.

Three things jump out of the table:

1. The averages hide a barbell. Midterm years cluster at the extremes — monster years like 1954 (+45.0%) and 1958 (+38.1%) sit next to disasters like 1974 (−29.7%) and 2002 (−23.4%). The +4.6% average is the residue of a tug-of-war, not a typical outcome.
2. Year 3 almost never disappoints. Of the nineteen pre-election years that followed, only 2015 (−0.7%) finished meaningfully below zero, and 2011 was flat. Seventeen of nineteen were positive, with seven gaining more than 20%.
3. Bad midterm years front-load the pain. The worst calendar outcomes — 1974, 2002, 2022 — all bottomed in October of the midterm year and were followed by Year 3 gains of +31.5%, +26.4% and +24.2% respectively.

The Midterm-Year Drawdown: Deeper Than Average

The calendar-year return understates how rough midterm years feel while you are living through them. The intra-year peak-to-trough decline in midterm years has averaged roughly −17%, against roughly −14% for all years — and the distribution is fat-tailed:

The deepest midterm-year declines each came with a macro shock attached: 1974 (−38% within the year, the second leg of the 1973–74 oil-shock bear), 2002 (−34%, the dot-com unwind plus accounting scandals), 1962 (−26%, the "Kennedy Slide"), 1970 (−26%, recession and tight money) and 2022 (−25%, the fastest Fed hiking cycle in four decades). For full context on the deepest declines, see our reference on every S&P 500 bear market since 1929.

The practical takeaway: a double-digit drawdown in a midterm year is the historical norm, not a signal that something unusual has broken. Fourteen of the nineteen midterm years since 1950 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 9% or more.

The Pre-Midterm Low: September–October Is the Bottom Zone

The single most actionable feature of the midterm cycle is when the lows tend to arrive. Across the nineteen midterm years since 1950, the market's low for the cycle clustered heavily in the weeks just before the election:

• October lows: 1966, 1974, 1990, 1998, 2002, 2014 and 2022 all printed their midterm-year bottom in October.
• Summer lows: 1962 (June), 1970 (May), 1982 (August), 2010 (July).
• The exception: 2018, where the December crash pushed the bottom past the election to December 24 — a reminder that no seasonal map is a guarantee.

The 2022 sequence is the textbook case: the S&P 500 bottomed at 3,577 on October 12, 2022 — twenty-seven days before the November 8 midterms — then rallied roughly 22% over the following twelve months and went on to new all-time highs in early 2024.

Stacked on top of ordinary September weakness (September is the worst month of the year on average), the midterm version of autumn has historically been the most reliable buy-the-fear window of the entire four-year cycle. The fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the pre-election year has historically been the strongest three-quarter stretch in the cycle.

19 for 19: The 12 Months After Midterms

Here is the statistic that makes this table worth bookmarking: measured from election day, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every midterm election since 1950. Nineteen midterms, nineteen positive 12-month windows, with an average gain in the neighborhood of +15%.

The streak survived some hostile conditions: it held through the 1973–74 oil embargo aftermath, the 1987 run-up, the 1990 Gulf crisis, the 2002 post-bubble wreckage, the 2010 European debt scare and the 2022 inflation shock. The mechanism is straightforward — by election day, the market has usually already absorbed a midterm-year drawdown, sentiment is washed out, and a major source of political uncertainty gets resolved overnight.

No streak is a law of nature, and nineteen observations is a modest sample. But as base rates go, it is one of the cleanest in market history — comparable in reliability to the recession signal in our yield curve inversion reference table, and far cleaner than most seasonal lore.

For the size split of the same windows, see small caps vs large caps after midterm elections: the smallest decile beat the largest in the following year after only 12 of 25 midterms since 1926.

Why Does the Midterm Pattern Exist?

Four explanations carry most of the weight:

1. Uncertainty resolution. Markets price political risk all year; the election removes it in a single night, whatever the outcome. Implied volatility around midterms reliably deflates after the vote.
2. Gridlock is a feature. The president's party has lost House seats in the vast majority of midterms since World War II. Markets historically treat divided government as policy stability — fewer big legislative swings to reprice.
3. The fiscal cycle. Administrations tend to take economic pain early in the term (Year 1–2) and push stimulus, spending and market-friendly policy toward re-election (Year 3–4). Year 3's +17.2% average is partly that incentive showing up in prices.
4. Monetary coincidence. Several midterm-year drawdowns (1974, 1982, 2018, 2022) coincided with Fed tightening cycles that peaked or pivoted near the election window — turning the post-midterm rally into a double tailwind. Our live tracker of market expectations for Fed rate cuts covers where that variable stands now.

Gridlock vs. Sweep: Does the Result Matter?

Less than the headlines suggest. Historical average returns under divided government are similar to — and in several studies modestly better than — returns under unified control. The market's revealed preference is for resolution itself, not for either party: the 12-months-after streak includes elections the incumbent party lost badly (1994, 2010, 2018) and ones it weathered (1962, 1998, 2022).

Short answer: at the index level the outcome has barely mattered.

Control as recorded by the House and Senate historians; the 12-month window is the one in the first table.

What does move sectors is the composition of the result — which committees change hands, what happens to tax, energy, defense and antitrust expectations. That is a stock-picking question rather than an index question, which is why watching how the Magnificent 7's index concentration interacts with any post-election rotation matters more in 2026 than in past cycles: seven stocks now carry roughly a third of the S&P 500's weight.

The post-midterm rally has not lifted every sector: bank stocks beat the market over the following 12 months after only 10 of 25 midterms since 1926 (full table).

The 2026 Setup: What to Watch Into November 3

The 2026 midterms arrive with the S&P 500 near record highs after a turbulent first half — a February–March risk flush, an Iran-driven oil spike that faded on de-escalation, and an AI-capex rally that has broadened beyond Nvidia into power, networking and memory names. Against the historical template, three things are worth tracking from June through November:

• The drawdown budget. History says assume a double-digit peak-to-trough decline at some point in 2026. If it arrives in the August–October window, the midterm map says that is the highest-probability accumulation zone of the cycle — not the moment to de-risk. Our AI drawdown early-warning dashboard tracks breadth, credit spreads and revision signals daily for exactly this scenario.
• The Fed variable. As in 2022 and 2018, the interaction between the tightening/easing path and the election window will decide whether the post-midterm rally gets one tailwind or two.
• Crypto as the risk-appetite proxy. Bitcoin has historically amplified the same post-uncertainty relief moves that equities show — its own reference table of reactions to every Fed rate cut since 2019 rhymes closely with the post-midterm pattern.

Where the S&P 500 Stands vs. the Midterm Pattern (October 15, 2026)

• Election date: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 — 19 days after this update. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats (33 regular races plus special elections in Ohio and Florida) are on the ballot, per the 2026 Senate elections overview. U.S. stock markets are open on Election Day.
• Year to date: the S&P 500 closed at 7,744.06 on October 15, up 13.1% from 6,845.50 at the end of 2025. Only three midterm years since 1950 were further ahead by mid-October: 1954 (+27.8%), 1958 (+26.5%) and 1950 (+18.2%). The median midterm year was up 2.9% at the same point.
• Drawdown: 2026's deepest closing decline so far is −9.1% (6,978.60 on January 27 to 6,343.72 on March 30), roughly half the −17% average intra-year drawdown of past midterm years. The index set a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6.
• What history implies: strong midterm years have still been followed by gains every time, but smaller ones. The nine years that were up more than 5% by mid-October averaged +13.4% over the 12 months after the election, against +17.7% after the seven down years. The closest analog by year-to-date gain, 1986 (+13.0% by October 15), produced only +1.1% because the October 1987 crash fell inside its window.

Result (as of 1:50 a.m. ET, November 4, 2026): Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House, calls made by AP and NBC News. By AP's count at 1:30 a.m. ET, Democrats had flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats and 16 House seats. Congress will be split from the White House from January 3, 2027.

How to Trade a Midterm Year with AI

A seasonal base rate is a starting point, not a strategy. The way to use this table is to combine the when (midterm autumn weakness, post-election strength) with live confirmation from breadth, positioning and macro data — which is exactly the job multi-agent AI is built for.

On SimianX, the AI model leaderboard runs 30 AI models from 6 providers on real trading P&L, so you can see which models are actually navigating the 2026 tape rather than backtesting it — we wrote up which AI model is the best trader from that data. If you want the pattern executed without screen time, AI autopilots can run a rules-plus-AI process around events like the November 3 election continuously — the mechanics are covered in our guide to running a 24/7 AI trading bot on autopilot, and plans start free.

FAQ

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

It was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were up, including special elections in Ohio and Florida, and U.S. stock markets were open. Democrats won both the Senate and the House (AP and NBC News calls).

Is a midterm election year good for stocks?

On average it is the weakest year of the four-year cycle: +4.6% for the S&P 500 since 1950 versus +9.1% for all years. But eleven of nineteen midterm years still finished positive, and the weakness is concentrated in the first nine to ten months of the year.

What happens to the stock market after midterm elections?

Since 1950 the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after all nineteen midterm elections, with an average gain of roughly 15%. The fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the following year has been the strongest three-quarter stretch of the entire cycle.

What happens to the stock market on election day?

Usually not much. On the 14 midterm election days since 1970 (the NYSE was closed on Election Day before then), the S&P 500 rose 10 times, by an average of +0.4%; the largest moves were +2.8% (1974) and −1.4% (1978). The next trading day was higher in 15 of 19 cycles, by an average of +0.6%.

What was the worst midterm election year for the S&P 500?

1974, at −29.7% for the calendar year and roughly −38% peak-to-trough, during the oil-shock bear market. 2002 (−23.4%) and 2022 (−19.4%) are the modern runners-up. All three bottomed in October and were followed by Year 3 gains of more than 24%.

When does the market usually bottom in a midterm year?

October is the dominant bottom month — 1966, 1974, 1990, 1998, 2002, 2014 and 2022 all troughed there. Summer lows (May–August) cover most other cases. 2018 is the notable exception, bottoming on December 24, after the election.

Does it matter which party wins the midterms?

Historically, less than the resolution of uncertainty itself. Average returns under divided government match or beat unified control, and the 12-month post-midterm streak spans both parties losing and holding Congress. Sector winners and losers depend on the result; the index-level pattern mostly does not.

Do stocks rise between the midterm election and the end of the year?

Usually, but modestly. Since 1950 the S&P 500 gained from election day to December 31 in 13 of 19 midterms, by an average of +2.6% (median +2.4%). The largest declines over that stretch were 2018 (−9.0%) and 1974 (−8.7%); the largest gain was 1954 (+13.2%).

What is the best month after a midterm election?

January of the following year: it has averaged +4.2% and risen in 17 of 19 post-midterm cycles since 1950. April is close behind (+3.4%, up 18 of 19), and November of the election year has averaged +2.7%. September of the following year is the weakest (−1.0%).

How did the S&P 500 do after the 2022 midterms?

It closed at 3,828.11 on election day, November 8, 2022, gained just +0.3% by year-end, and stood at 4,382.78 on November 8, 2023 — a 12-month gain of +14.5%. The year's low (3,577.03 on October 12, 2022) came 27 days before the vote.

Does a House flip change the post-midterm rally?

Not in a measurable way. The six midterms in which the House changed hands (1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, 2022) were followed by an average 12-month gain of +16.1%, versus +14.6% for the 13 in which it did not — a gap well inside the normal spread of outcomes. Divided and unified outcomes averaged +15.1% and +15.0%.

Is 2026 following the midterm-year pattern?

Not so far. At the October 15, 2026 close the S&P 500 was up 13.1% for the year and within 1.0% of its record, while the median midterm year was up 2.9% at that point; its worst decline of the year, −9.1%, is about half the midterm-year average. Historically, strong midterm years have still been followed by 12-month gains, but smaller ones on average.

Related Reading

• Does Mercury Retrograde Affect the Stock Market? 1950–2026
• US Economic Calendar November 2026: Dates in Your Time Zone
• The Presidential Cycle: S&P 500 Returns by Year, 1928-2025
• S&P 500 in Presidential Election Years: 1928-2024 Data
• Best Sectors After Midterm Elections: 100 Years of Data
• Is Gridlock Good for Stocks? 49 Congresses, 1927-2025
• 2026 Midterm Election Stocks: 12 Tickers, 3 Scenarios
• Do Defense Stocks Rise After Midterms? LMT, RTX, NOC 2026
• Will the 2026 Midterms Move Healthcare Stocks UNH, HUM, CVS?
• 2026 Midterms and Energy Stocks: XOM, CVX, FSLR Outlook
• 2026 Midterms Meet the Fed: Is a September Rate Cut Dead?
• Is the Tech Selloff Priced In? 10 AI Stocks, 18 War Endings

Sources & Further Reading

• United States midterm elections — Wikipedia
• Presidential Election Cycle Theory — Investopedia
• S&P 500 historical data — S&P Dow Jones Indices
• S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily history — Yahoo Finance
• S&P 500 Index (.SPX) — CNBC
• S&P 500 (SP500) — FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
• Party Divisions of the House of Representatives — U.S. House History, Art & Archives
• Party Division — U.S. Senate Historical Office
• 2026 United States Senate elections — Wikipedia
• Companion references on SimianX: S&P 500 seasonality by month, every S&P 500 bear market since 1929, and the yield curve inversion table.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This reference is for information and education, not investment advice.